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THE WEEK AHEAD

The Reserve Bank delivers its monthly interest rates decision, while GDP, current account and trade balance data are due.
By · 1 Mar 2013
By ·
1 Mar 2013
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Domestic news will replace company reports as the focus for investors this week, with major releases due from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The key event of the week will be the central bank's cash rate decision on Tuesday afternoon. Analysts expect weaker-than-expected capex figures could persuade the central bank to lower the official cash rate.

Elsewhere on the local front, the ABS will unveil the latest reads on current account balance, GDP and trade balance data.

Interest rates will also be a central focus overseas with the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England all set to hand down decisions.

Unemployment data out of the United States will also be of interest towards the end of the week.

Reserve Bank

All eyes will be on the Reserve Bank of Australia's March policy meeting on Tuesday, when the board decides whether or not to move on interest rates. At its February meeting, the first of 2013, the bank held the official cash rate steady at three per cent.

The result will be particularly interesting given the varying opinions offered this week by Reserve Bank board members Heather Ridout and Greg Corbett, as well as assistant governor Guy Debelle, regarding the role of interest rates in offsetting the stubbornly high Australian dollar.

Local news

Away from the bank's decision, it's a jam-packed week for data on the local front.

On Monday, the ABS will release building approvals for January, as well as company profits data for the December quarter.

Elsewhere, ANZ Bank will unveil the February instalment of its jobs advertisement series and the TD-Melbourne Institute inflation gauge for February will be released.

Tuesday will bring the December quarter's current account balance and retail sales for January. Economists are expecting a lift of 0.4 per cent in retail sales.

The AiG/Commonwealth Bank of Australia Performance of Services Index is also due out.

On Wednesday, the latest read on Australia's GDP is set to be released. The expectation is for a firm lift in output of 0.8 per cent.

Thursday will deliver the nation's trade balance for January.

National Australia Bank is also slated to release its business confidence survey for the December quarter, while AiG will unveil its Performance of Construction Index for January.

Corporate

Company news is relatively thin on the ground this week, with February reporting season officially wrapped up and only a few stragglers left to release results.

On Monday a slew of big names will trade ex-dividend in the wake of their recent earnings reports – these include AMP, QBE Insurance, Arrium and Lend Lease.

Tuesday will see Blackwood Corporation release its half-yearly results. The result will be particularly noteworthy as it was Mulsanne Resource's unpaid $28.4 million debt to Blackwood that precipitated the liquidation of Mulsanne – mining magnate Nathan Tinkler's private investment group – late last year.

Karoon Gas will also release its interim results, while AGL Energy will trade ex-dividend.

On Wednesday, Rio Tinto will trade ex-dividend.

Thursday will see Oil Search trade ex-dividend.

On Friday, Australian-American Mining Corp will release its half-year results, as will Goldsearch.

Elsewhere, Invocare and Anglogold Ashanti will trade ex-dividend.

Overseas

Interest rates take centre stage overseas this week, along with some key employment data out the United States.

Monday will see the release of the producer price index for January in the EU.

On Tuesday, HSBC will release both its services and composite purchasing managers' indices for China.

In the US, the Institute for Supply Management will release its non-manufacturing index for February. Economists are expecting a stable result near 55.0.

Retail sales and Markit Services PMI are also due out of the EU.

Wednesday will see factory orders data for January released by the US Census Bureau.

Thursday's international news will be dominated by interest rates, with the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England set to hand down decisions.

Trade balance, current accounts and GDP data are also due out of Japan.

International trade and jobless claims figures will be released in the US.

On Friday, the US labour force will take centre stage with the latest reads on the unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls due out. The consensus estimate is for a jobs lift of around 148,000.

Wrapping up

On Tuesday, founder and editor of The Conversation, Andrew Japsan will speak on media standards, ownership and regulation at Victoria University.

Wednesday will see the Australian Institute of Company Directors leaders' edge luncheon series discussing the big issues for boards in 2013. Business Spectator's own Alan Kohler will facilitate a panel that includes Billabong chief executive Laura Inman and Arrium chairman Peter Smedley.

Elsewhere, Conrad Harvey, general group manager of information technology at Coles, will discuss innovation at a Trans-Tasman Business Circle event in Melbourne.

On Thursday, John Brumby will deliver his first address as chairman of the Council of Australian Governments Reform Council in Melbourne, where he will look at federal-state relations and leadership in the context of the Asian Century White Paper national objectives.

Edelman chief executive Michelle Hutton will also speak in Sydney as part of the Breakfast on the Run series.

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Mitchell Neems
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