The rise of the next Prime Minister

Since Federation Australians have witnessed the arrival and departure of 26 individuals as Prime Minister, as well as a bunch of Deputy Prime Ministers. Not one of them was female – until Julia Gillard came along, as Deputy.

Will Julia – or any other female – rise to the very top of the tree in Australian politics? It's far from being an irrelevant or obscure question to mull over the summer break as Australia readies to move into a new decade.

Just on 30 years ago, the Tory party room voted for Margaret Thatcher – and three years later the electorate followed up and installed her as Britain's first female Prime Minister.

Also for example, in India, Egypt, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Germany, and New Zealand voters were confident enough – aeons ago – to install females as head of government.

In Australia we've had four female Premiers – all over the last twenty years, and generally shovelled in at the last political minute to try to rescue dying governments. No doubt we've had countless Mayors and Lord Mayors – even a Governor or two and a Governor-General.

Of course, the argument will always come back to one issue: merit. If females are strong enough, resilient enough, smart enough, then there's no reason why they shouldn't eventually make it to the top job in Australian politics.

Look around the Federal political scene at the moment. Apart from Gillard the Rudd government is well served by people like Penny Wong, Nicola Roxon, and Jenny Macklin – all senior ministers in critical public policy roles. There's also plenty of emerging talent, like Maxine McKew.

What a different story it is for the opposition. Julie Bishop, a successful minister in the Howard government is a seeming permanent deputy to any male leader. The recently resurrected career of the accident prone and elderly Bronwyn Bishop made news as did the by-election win of Kelly O'Dwyer, said to be talented and destined for a decent career in politics.

Gillard, for many, is a polarising figure. For her critics she's a "lefty”, single, childless, of Welsh heritage and with distinct DNA.

For her supporters – who probably sit in significant majority – she's brave, bold, resilient, loyal, smart, pragmatic and motivated.

On November 11, 1998 Julia Gillard rose in the vast chamber of the House of Representatives and delivered a heart-felt bed-rock Labour maiden speech. It's worth re-reading.

"For too long public debate in Australia has failed to nourish and inspire us. For too long it has been limited to the day to day monitoring of the health of our economy rather than the morals and goals of society.

"In my view … the Australian people are looking for a return to passion and conviction in Australian politics and a clear articulation of values.

"Our values are fundamentally democratic and collective,” she said.

Doesn't sound remotely like Kevin Rudd? It's more like homage to her father, who worked in blue collar jobs and became a psychiatric nurse and to her mother, who was a domestic in an aged care institution.

The government – barring unforeseen events – is likely to be returned to power with an increased majority next year. Gillard will still be Deputy Prime Minister.

Three years on – sometime in 2013 – Rudd will again go to the polls, with a near certain win, albeit with a certain loss of seats. It's then that Rudd will face the choice of most of his 25 predecessors – do I keep going, or do I plan an orderly handover?

The last PM to take the second option was Robert Menzies in early 1966. He handed the Prime Ministership to Harold Holt. Every Prime Minister since has either been rolled by his Party or the electorate.

There's every chance Rudd will take the Menzies option.

Rudd came to politics via the bureaucracy. He is an intellectual, not a rusted-on Labourite like Latham, Beazley, Crean, Keating and Hawke before him.

He will have set policy and political goals which will not be life-long ambitions. He will come at this decision as a pragmatist and realist. He doesn't need the money.

Gillard will be 53 years old in 2014 and still Deputy PM. She will have served her time.

Allow me, then, an over the horizon Malcolm Mackerras-type prediction (generally wildly wrong): Julia Gillard, the red-headed Welsh-born single woman who lives in Melbourne's Western suburbs will become Australia's next Prime Minister – and the first female in over 110 years to hold that august, temporary and always bitterly contested job.

It will be handed to her by the ALP Party Room, initially. It will be up to her to then convince the electorate via the ballot box that she deserves the job.

Surely, for that test, it's time.