The numbers you need

20 per cent chance

... of Australia falling into a recession, according to a survey of economists by the Commonwealth Bank's market research team. However, it notes that 20 per cent is the "default" forecast and indicates an 80 per cent chance of dodging a recession. And that Australia has historically gone through a recession every 13 years, giving an average odds of 25 per cent. And the market yield curve implies the chances of a recession are very low.

63 per cent

... that's the return of PM Capital's Absolute Performance Fund for the financial year just ended. The fund is the best-performing global shares fund over the year by a big margin. The Sydney boutique fund manager made the money for its investors largely as a result of successfully playing the recovery in Las Vegas house prices.

148.8

... the national average price in cents of a litre of unleaded petrol, which is a three-month high, according to the Australian Institute of Petroleum.