The numbers you need
... of Australia falling into a recession, according to a survey of economists by the Commonwealth Bank's market research team. However, it notes that 20 per cent is the "default" forecast and indicates an 80 per cent chance of dodging a recession. And that Australia has historically gone through a recession every 13 years, giving an average odds of 25 per cent. And the market yield curve implies the chances of a recession are very low.
63 per cent
... that's the return of PM Capital's Absolute Performance Fund for the financial year just ended. The fund is the best-performing global shares fund over the year by a big margin. The Sydney boutique fund manager made the money for its investors largely as a result of successfully playing the recovery in Las Vegas house prices.
148.8
... the national average price in cents of a litre of unleaded petrol, which is a three-month high, according to the Australian Institute of Petroleum.
Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…
The Commonwealth Bank's market research team surveyed economists and reported about a 20% chance of Australia falling into a recession — described in the article as the survey's 'default' forecast, which implies an 80% chance of avoiding a recession.
A 20% recession probability means economists surveyed saw a modest chance of downturn — not a high likelihood. The article notes 20% is the default forecast, so it represents risk but not a consensus of imminent recession.
The article points out Australia has historically experienced a recession about every 13 years, which equates to roughly a 25% average chance. It also says the market yield curve currently implies the chances of recession are very low, so different indicators give different signals.
As reported in the article, these are different types of signals — survey-based odds, historical frequency and the yield curve can tell different stories. Everyday investors can treat them as inputs to a broader view rather than a single forecast: combine economic indicators, portfolio diversification and your own time horizon when making decisions.
According to the article, PM Capital's Absolute Performance Fund returned 63% for the financial year and was the best-performing global shares fund over the year. The surge was largely driven by successfully playing the recovery in Las Vegas house prices.
The article reports the fund's 63% return for the past financial year and attributes it to exposure to the Las Vegas housing recovery. It does not make any claims or forecasts about whether that level of performance will continue.
The article cites the Australian Institute of Petroleum, reporting a national average unleaded petrol price of 148.8 cents per litre — a three-month high. Higher petrol prices can squeeze household budgets and are an input investors watch when thinking about consumer spending and inflation trends.
The article references three sources: the Commonwealth Bank's market research survey of economists for the recession odds, PM Capital for the Absolute Performance Fund's return and the Australian Institute of Petroleum for the national petrol price figure. Investors can consult those organisations' public research or reports for more detail.
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