The global stockmarket’s next phase

With the US Federal Reserve poised to tighten, the next leg up in the market relies on fundamentals.

Summary: US equities have tripled since the March 2009 low, with the monetary stimulus from the US Federal Reserve making a significant contribution to the rise. The story is similar for Europe and Japan, where aggressive quantitative easing is taking place. In contrast, however, The Fed is poised to tighten, and this has been reflected in the S&P500 making little ground this year. However, there are fundamental factors on the positive side.

Key take-out: I still expect the S&P 500 to rise 10 per cent or more by the end of the year, but it will have to get there on the basis of fundamentals without the help of liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve.

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