French politics is a major direct menace for the euro, even if that dénouement might still be three years away and it might appear a low possibility. But, if the threat materialises, it will be lethal for the euro.
Michael Collins, Investment Commentator at Fidelity
The threat stems from the collapse in support for the two mainstream parties, the centre-rightUnion for a Popular Movement (UMP) and President Francois Hollande’s Socialist Party, and the simultaneous rise of Marine Le Pen’s populist, right-wing and euro-hating National Front. So upbeat is Le Pen, now almost the de facto opposition leader, she hopes to win the presidency in 2017.
Le Pen’s danger to Europe is that she is talented enough to direct all French angst, no matter its source, against one enemy [the EU] and to get away with posing just one solution – the replacement of the euro with the franc – she has pledge to do this on the first day in office!
Her political deception is to blame all France’s woes on the euro (admittedly, Europe’s biggest post-war mistake). How Europe would cope if France were to ditch the euro is anybody’s guess.
Investors and others will need to form their own judgments if polls show Le Pen is heading towards the presidency – in July she took the lead in the first-round polls for this election; in September she beat Hollande in a second-round matchup, according to one polls.