InvestSMART

THE DISTILLERY: The Don of commentary

Considering the volume of 'analysis' that is simply relaying the contents of Don Argus' speech at Melbourne Mining Club, it's evident the outgoing BHP chairman is Australia's leading commentator.
By · 23 Oct 2009
By ·
23 Oct 2009
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In this column's view, commentary serves three purposes: analysis of current events, trends and ideas; fresh ideas and prognostications to push back boundaries; and quality writing that is an intrinsic reading pleasure.

Based on these three criteria, and after yesterday's Melbourne Mining Club speech, Don Argus is Australia's leading commentator.

Unstung by this humiliation, two of today's columnists prostrate themselves before their master. Malcolm Maiden of The Age and Matthew Stevens of The Australian do the same uncritical excerpt job, faithfully reporting Argus' three ideas to help Australia fund resource projects. The first is to deepen Australia's corporate bond market. Second, is "the creation of resources industry-specific infrastructure bonds, as part of a tax structure that gives Australian investors and superannuation funds in particular a reason to commit long-term funds to resources project developments.” Third, is "that 100 per cent foreign acquisitions could be approved for 15 years, after which the buyer would be obliged to refloat 50 per cent back to the Australian market.”

Lines of enquiry that commentators might have pursued include: what are the long term implications in Argus' ideas for the global free-trading system that has underpinned great power peace for 50 years? What damage did BHP do to the national interest when it pursued monopoly pricing power for iron ore in its takeover of Rio under Argus watch? What other alternative rules for FIRB might be applied to balance foreign ownership, capital development and Chinese relations? How about a two-pillar policy that bans both mergers between and acquisition of Australia's two mega-miners and protects what's left of pricing competition? Is abandoning an annual contract iron-ore pricing mechanism that just protected Australian export income through a global 12 month trade apocalypse in the national interest?

Two other commentators also follow Argus, but at least from a short distance. Stephen Bartholomeusz of Business Spectator recounts Argus' full set of ideas, including his contention that Australia should return banking regulation to a "distinction between traditional commercial banks and investment banks and wants the investment banks 'appropriately' regulated and capitalised.” No other commentator even mentions this, Argus' most controversial idea as former NAB chief. Robert Guy, writing as The Australian Financial Review's Chanticleer takes on Argus' rosy view of China, "there are few – if any – examples of an economy easily and seamlessly transitioning from an export orientation to a consumer led orientation.”

On other prostrated entities, Telstra is the subject of Elizabeth Knight's column today as she snuffs out the sparks of market sentiment around moves by the Opposition to improve Telstra's bargaining power in finding a deal with the bellicose Stephen Conroy. According to Knight "...from a negotiating position, Telstra is really over a barrel...The government's role is to look after the whole community, not just Telstra shareholders. Despite reminders from Telstra's chairwoman, Catherine Livingstone, that most people with superannuation have shares in the company, the reality is that more people have phones and broadband than have shares.”

Sticking with Fairfax, in the AFR op-ed pages, John Hewson pounds the Rudd government's ETS, as well as its spin of the debate away from solid emission-reduction targets, which is what "Copenhagen is chiefly about”. Hewson unfavourably compares Rudd against Gordon Brown, quoting large excerpts from a recent UK PM's speech. Whilst this column agrees with the Hewson line it can't help pointing out the comparison with Brown leaves aside the fact that Rudd's job is harder, given the two countries' current and future export mix.

Another lively op-ed at the AFR comes from the national president of the Australian Human Resources Institute, Peter Wilson. He sees a "national disgrace” in the fact that "only 8 per cent of Australia's major company directors are women.” According to Wilson, "women often outperform men in measurements of executive potential...greater abilities to finish projects efficiently...manage team values and emotion; develop sound business relationships based on trust; engage colleagues through inspiration rather than micro-management or intimidation; and demonstrate genuine empathy and ethical leadership.” Might be interesting to look at the bonus structures demanded by women too.

A couple of other interesting pieces are available. The first is John Durie at The Australian who uses a very mixed set of retailer results to argue that the RBA should pause its rate rises. He also cites credit statistics, "The big banks report credit card spending has stopped dead with virtually zero growth. Normally at this time of year you'd expect growth of about 10 per cent. It seems while some are urging the government to cut back spending sharply, many are not so sure - in fact, some are growing increasingly concerned.” The piece is worth reading for its mix of indicators but the conclusion ultimately misses the point. Australia has little choice in rate rises with house prices in complete blow-off.

Bryan Frith of The Australian deploys his usual thoroughness in exploring the stoush between Drillsearch and Circumpacific Energy over Peter Simpson.

Finally, professor at the Australian School of Taxation, Neil Warren, also appears in The Australian with an op-ed that predicts all of the outcomes for the Henry tax review. It's a must read for any tax wonk.

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David Llewellyn-Smith
David Llewellyn-Smith
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