The 2012 recovery: handle with care

US deleveraging has proceeded quite a long way since the pre-GFC boom, but the eurozone remains far more fragile and the slow global path to balanced economic settings is still experimental.

What does 2012 hold in store for the world economy? Let us start by looking at the battered high-income countries. Is there a good reason to expect healthy recoveries? Not really. The outcome in the eurozone might be a disaster that spreads around the world. Even the US recovery is likely to be fragile. The shadow cast by events before 2007 passes slowly.

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