Short-sellers target engineers
Retail and media stocks remain the big hedge fund favourites, but engineering companies are also being targeted, with Transfield, UGL and Boart Longyear joining the S&P/ASX 200 Index's top 20 most shorted stocks in the past six months.
Engineering companies Bradken and Monadelphous are also on the list, Australian Securities and Investments Commission data shows. Hedge funds hold at least 10 per cent of the shares of all these companies, except Bradken.
Platypus Asset Management founder Donald Williams said short-sellers were responding to the negative sentiment weighing on the drilling and engineering sector since late last year, as the resources boom started to fade.
"It is a reflection of the view that the mining boom is over," he said.
But while the outlook for mining services remains weak, Mr Williams said much of that sentiment had already been factored into prices, making the short positions a bigger gamble.
"If you're shorting them here, you're pretty late to the party," he said. "The down move has been substantial and a lot of them are pretty cheap. You're basically expecting them to go broke."
Short-selling is when hedge funds and other investors borrow shares they do not own and sell them in the hope their price will go down. If it does, they buy back the shares at the lower price, return them to their owner and pocket the difference.
Bell Potter head of research Peter Quinton said hedge funds were responding to a report by UBS analysts this week, which forecast a 20 per cent global decline in mining company capital expenditure in calendar 2014.
"Just because the share price is down a lot already doesn't mean it couldn't go a lot lower," he said.
"When someone tells you global capital expenditure is going to fall by 20 per cent in a year, you've got to ask yourself, 'do I want to be exposed to those companies?"'
Engineering services group Transfield reported a heavy $250 million loss for the year to June, hit by impairment charges. Drill contractor Boart Longyear flagged further cuts amid the ongoing contraction in mining activity. It posted a net loss of $US329 million, down from a net profit of $US98 million a year earlier.
Hedge funds have been forced to change some of their favourite bets after a number of heavily shorted companies produced positive earnings for the 2013 financial year.
Flight Centre, a favourite due to the expected decline of bricks-and-mortar travel agencies, surprised short-sellers last month when it reported a record $246 million profit for the year to June.
Fairfax Media remains the most shorted company on the S&P/ASX 200, with 14 per cent of stock held by hedge funds. Myer is second with 13.4 per cent.
Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…
Short-sellers are focusing on mining services and engineering companies because drilling contracts are drying up and negative sentiment has built since the resources boom faded. Hedge funds are betting these companies could suffer further as mining activity and capital expenditure soften.
Engineering and mining services names that have appeared among the S&P/ASX 200's most shorted include Transfield, UGL, Boart Longyear, Bradken and Monadelphous. The article notes hedge funds hold at least 10% of the shares in these companies except for Bradken.
Short-selling is when investors borrow shares they don't own and sell them hoping the price will fall. If the share price drops, they buy back the shares at the lower price, return them to the lender and keep the difference as profit.
The article cites Transfield reporting a heavy $250 million loss for the year to June after impairment charges, and Boart Longyear posting a net loss of US$329 million (down from a US$98 million net profit a year earlier). These results illustrate the sector's stress.
Yes. Flight Centre surprised short-sellers by reporting a record $246 million profit for the year to June, and the article notes several heavily shorted companies produced positive earnings for the 2013 financial year, forcing some hedge funds to change bets.
According to the article, Fairfax Media is the most shorted on the S&P/ASX 200 with 14% of stock held by hedge funds, and Myer is second with 13.4%. Several engineering names also have hedge fund holdings of at least 10% (except Bradken).
Analysts at UBS forecast a 20% global decline in mining company capital expenditure in calendar 2014. That outlook prompted hedge funds to reassess exposure to mining services and engineering companies, increasing short-selling pressure on the sector.
Not necessarily. Industry observers in the article point out much negative sentiment has already been priced in, making some stocks relatively cheap. While short-sellers argue further falls are possible, others warn that betting on companies to go broke can be a risky and late-stage play.

