Sharemarket bounces on rate-cut hope
The S&P/ASX 200 Index was trading 1.5 per cent higher on the back of positive global manufacturing data, but rallied late after the RBA stayed its hand but retained an easing bias.
The benchmark index closed 2.6 per cent higher at 4834 points — its best day since December 2011. The broader All Ordinaries Index ended Tuesday 2.6 per cent up at 4810.3 points. It was its strongest day since October 2011.
The Australian dollar lost half-a-cent in value, falling below US92¢ after the RBA decision. It was trading at US91.91¢ late on Tuesday.
The Reserve Bank's desire for a lower Australian dollar despite the currency losing more than 12 per cent of its value since mid-April was a surprise, and lifted the already positive mood in the market, UBS interest rate strategist Andrew Lilley said.
"[The RBA] was saying that effectively the inflation outlook was unchanged even after the currency fell, which might mean they don't think the currency has fallen enough to generate better demand in Australia," Mr Lilley said.
The market rally added about $35 billion to the market's value. Mining giant BHP added almost $6 billion to its market capitalisation, closing 3.7 per cent higher at $32.07. Rio Tinto lifted by 2.6 per cent to $53.07.
QBE's market capitalisation rose by $780 million as shares in the insurer soared by 4.18 per cent. Oil and gas explorer Santos put on $552 million after it closed 4.6 per cent higher.
All major sectors closed more than 1.5 per cent higher. The embattled gold mining sector soared 6.9 per cent, while materials rose 3.7 per cent. The gains followed Monday's heavy losses, when the the S&P/ASX200 Index recorded its worst start to a financial year since 2009-10.
RBA governor Glenn Stevens said in a statement that the Australian dollar remained at a "high level" despite its recent depreciation, and noted — as he did in the June board minutes — that further falls "would help to foster a rebalancing of growth in the economy".
Economists said they expected at least one more rate cut this year unless the currency slips further, amid a slower-than-expected transition towards non-mining-led growth as the resources investment boom peaks.
"We think the likelihood is that the RBA will ease again by the end of the year," NAB senior economist David de Garis said.
"Our expectation is that the unemployment rate will push up towards and maybe through 6 per cent by the end of this year. Another [trigger] could be if the inflation numbers surprise on the lower end, providing the RBA with more room to ease."
Financial markets were pricing in an almost 50 per cent chance of a 25-basis-points rate cut at the RBA's August board meeting.
The Australian sharemarket is expected to be driven by economic news in July before a corporate information blackout a month out from reporting season, CIMB head of research sales Justin Gallagher said.
Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…
The ASX rally was driven by the RBA keeping the door open to further cash rate cuts (retaining an easing bias) combined with positive global manufacturing data. The S&P/ASX 200 closed 2.6% higher at 4,834 points — its best day since December 2011 — and the market added about $35 billion in value.
By staying its hand but keeping an easing bias, the RBA signalled more cuts are possible. Economists cited in the article expected at least one more rate cut this year unless the Australian dollar weakens further, and markets were pricing in about a 50% chance of a 25 basis-point cut at the August meeting.
The Australian dollar fell about half a cent to trade below US92¢ (around US91.91¢). The RBA said the currency remained at a 'high level' despite the recent drop and noted further falls would help rebalance growth — meaning currency moves could influence inflation, exports and investor sentiment.
Mining giants were strong contributors: BHP added almost $6 billion to its market capitalisation and closed 3.7% higher at $32.07, while Rio Tinto rose 2.6% to $53.07, reflecting the broader positive market mood.
All major sectors climbed more than 1.5%. The embattled gold mining sector surged 6.9% and materials rose 3.7%. For everyday investors, this shows the rally was broad-based and that sector rotation can be fast — gains followed heavy losses the previous day.
Insurance group QBE saw its market capitalisation rise by about $780 million as shares jumped 4.18%, and oil and gas explorer Santos added roughly $552 million after closing 4.6% higher.
Investors should watch upcoming economic news in July (which the market was expected to be driven by) and inflation and unemployment data — economists said a rise in unemployment toward 6% or lower-than-expected inflation could prompt further RBA easing. Also note the corporate reporting blackout that begins a month before reporting season.
The move highlights how central-bank language, currency swings and economic data can quickly shift market sentiment. Everyday investors may find it useful to monitor RBA statements, key economic releases and sector performance, and be prepared for short-term volatility around policy and macro updates.

