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Reserve keeps demons at bay for CBA chief

Commonwealth Bank chief executive Ian Narev does not lie awake at night worrying about how the property market might respond to record-low interest rates, despite persistent questions about house prices from foreign investors.
By · 13 Aug 2013
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13 Aug 2013
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Commonwealth Bank chief executive Ian Narev does not lie awake at night worrying about how the property market might respond to record-low interest rates, despite persistent questions about house prices from foreign investors.

The chief of the country's biggest bank said on Monday he thought the economy was suffering from low confidence, and it was important that the election produced a clear winner.

He also said he thought there would probably be one more 0.25 percentage point cut in the cash rate, after the Reserve last week cut the benchmark rate to a 53-year low of 2.5 per cent.

While some experts are debating the potential for cheap debt to sow the seeds of a housing bubble, Mr Narev said he had confidence in the judgment of Reserve governor Glenn Stevens and the board.

"I am absolutely confident that all direct and indirect consequences for the property market that may flow from a change in interest rates are absolutely thought through by the governor and his board," he said at a conference in Sydney.

"I do not lose a moment's sleep thinking about that. They think very carefully about a range of issues, they are absolutely aware of what effects different interest rate settings might have on the economy and I've got a lot of confidence that they ... have a good perspective about that."

Mr Narev said foreign investors "always" wanted to talk about Australian house prices, but "stress tests" had found the bank would survive a severe housing downturn with price falls of up to 40 per cent.

The comments came amid fresh signs of banks competing to sell home loans, with NAB offering $1000 cash payments to customers who refinanced with the lender.

Aussie Home Loans also slashed rates on two-year fixed mortgages to 4.64 per cent, a move it said was facilitated by funding from CBA, which owns 80 per cent of the mortgage business.

After the sharp falls in interest rates, some analysts and industry insiders say there is a debate to be had on risks of a housing bubble.

Real estate agent John McGrath, speaking on the same panel, said the recent pace of price growth in some areas was fast and probably not sustainable over the long term.

Money markets have priced in one more rate cut of 0.25 percentage points, and Mr Narev said he thought this was about right. He also said the economy was affected by low confidence, and it was important that whoever won the election had a clear majority.

"We love the fact that we're so dependent on Australia as an economy ... but in the short term there are some confidence challenges, and we've all got to be aware of those," he said.
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Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…

No — Ian Narev says he does not "lose a moment's sleep" over how the property market might react. He expressed strong confidence in Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens and the RBA board, saying they have carefully thought through direct and indirect consequences of interest rate settings on the housing market.

According to Ian Narev, there will probably be one more 0.25 percentage point cut to the cash rate. Money markets had also priced in one further 0.25% reduction at the time of the article.

The Reserve Bank had cut the benchmark cash rate to 2.5%, which the article notes is a 53-year low.

Yes — Narev said internal "stress tests" showed the bank would survive a severe housing downturn, including scenarios with house price falls of up to 40%.

Yes — the article notes banks are competing for mortgage customers. For example, NAB was offering $1,000 cash payments to customers who refinanced, and Aussie Home Loans cut two-year fixed mortgage rates to 4.64%.

Aussie Home Loans slashed two-year fixed rates to 4.64%, a move the lender said was facilitated by funding from Commonwealth Bank. The article states CBA owns 80% of the Aussie Home Loans mortgage business.

The article says some analysts and industry insiders debate the risk of a housing bubble after sharp interest rate falls. Real estate agent John McGrath told the panel that recent price growth in some areas has been fast and is probably not sustainable over the long term.

Ian Narev said the economy is being affected by low confidence and that it was important the election resulted in a clear winner. He highlighted short-term confidence challenges and urged awareness of those issues while noting CBA's strong focus on the Australian economy.