InvestSMART

Reserve keeps demons at bay for CBA chief

Commonwealth Bank chief executive Ian Narev does not lie awake at night worrying about how the property market might respond to record-low interest rates, despite persistent questions about house prices from foreign investors.
By · 13 Aug 2013
By ·
13 Aug 2013
comments Comments
Commonwealth Bank chief executive Ian Narev does not lie awake at night worrying about how the property market might respond to record-low interest rates, despite persistent questions about house prices from foreign investors.

The chief of the country's biggest bank said on Monday he thought the economy was suffering from low confidence, and it was important the election produced a clear winner.

He also believed there would probably be one more quarter of a percentage point cut in the cash rate, after the Reserve lowered the benchmark rate to a 53-year low of 2.5 per cent last week.

While some experts are debating the potential for cheap debt to sow the seeds of a future housing bubble, Mr Narev said he had total confidence in RBA governor Glenn Stevens and the board to make this judgment.

"I am absolutely confident that all direct and indirect consequences for the property market that may flow from a change in interest rates are absolutely thought through by the governor and his board," Mr Narev said at a conference in Sydney.

"I do not lose a moment's sleep thinking about that. They think very carefully about a range of issues, they are absolutely aware of what effects different interest rate settings might have on the economy and I've got a lot of confidence that they ... have a good perspective about that."

Mr Narev said foreign investors always wanted to talk about Australian house prices, but "stress tests" had found the bank would survive a severe housing downturn with price falls of up to 40 per cent.

Banks are increasingly competing to sell home loans, with National Australia Bank offering $1000 cash payments to customers who refinance their home loan with the bank. Aussie Home Loans has slashed rates on two-year fixed mortgages to 4.64 per cent, a move it said was facilitated by access to funding from CBA, which owns 80 per cent of the company.

After the sharp fall in interest rates, some analysts and industry insiders say there is a debate to be had on the risks of a housing bubble taking shape.

Speaking on the same panel as Mr Narev, real estate agent John McGrath said the recent price growth in some areas was probably not sustainable over the long term.

Money markets have priced in one more official rate cut of a quarter of a percentage point, and Mr Narev said he thought this was "about right, but these things can change on a dime".

"We love the fact that we're so dependent on Australia as an economy ... but in the short term there are some confidence challenges, and we've all got to be aware of those," he said.
Google News
Follow us on Google News
Go to Google News, then click "Follow" button to add us.
Share this article and show your support
Free Membership
Free Membership
InvestSMART
InvestSMART
Keep on reading more articles from InvestSMART. See more articles
Join the conversation
Join the conversation...
There are comments posted so far. Join the conversation, please login or Sign up.

Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…

CBA chief Ian Narev said he isn’t losing sleep over how the property market will react to record-low interest rates. He expressed full confidence in RBA governor Glenn Stevens and the board to weigh the impacts of interest-rate settings on the economy and property market.

The article notes the RBA cut the cash rate to a 53-year low of 2.5%. Money markets have priced in one more 0.25 percentage-point cut. For investors, that has fuelled debate about cheaper debt, potential housing risks and increased competition among lenders on mortgage pricing and offers.

Yes. Mr Narev said he thought there would probably be one more quarter-of-a-percentage-point cut after the recent RBA move, but he also cautioned that these expectations can change quickly.

According to Mr Narev, CBA’s stress tests showed the bank would survive a severe housing downturn with price falls of up to 40 percent.

The article highlights growing competition: National Australia Bank was offering $1,000 cash to customers who refinance their home loan with NAB, and Aussie Home Loans cut two-year fixed rates to 4.64%—a move the lender said was facilitated by funding from CBA.

The piece reports there’s an active debate among analysts and insiders about whether cheap debt could help create a housing bubble. While some warn recent price growth in certain areas may not be sustainable, Mr Narev expressed confidence in the RBA’s ability to judge and manage those risks.

Mr Narev said the economy was suffering from low confidence and that it was important the upcoming election produced a clear winner to help restore certainty.

The article suggests everyday investors should note that interest rates are at historic lows, lenders are actively competing with lower rates and incentives, and experts disagree about sustainability of recent price rises. It also highlights regulators and bank stress tests as factors aimed at managing downside risk.