Rates on hold as Stevens continues to talk down dollar
In an almost identical statement to last month, RBA governor Glenn Stevens said the present monetary policy settings were appropriate.
"The board will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target," he said.
The local currency slipped a quarter of a cent on the comments to US90.57¢, near its November low, and was buying US90.71¢ late on Tuesday.
Mr Stevens' statement contained only minor changes, such as the changing of the words "still too soon to judge" about the impact of improved consumer and business sentiment to "still unclear".
The similar message showed the central bank did not want to rock the boat before its summer break, JPMorgan economist Tom Kennedy said. The board's next meeting is in February. "There's an easing bias ... and given where we are in the cycle, we think that lends itself to a lower cash rate rather than raising the cash rate," he said. "But in saying that, it's going to be very heavily data dependent in terms of the timing."
Analysts said the RBA would be keeping a close watch on the movements in the Australian dollar, capital expenditure levels, housing and labour market figures, and possible moves by the US Federal Reserve to reduce its bond-buying program. The local currency fell by 3.7 per cent last month, in part due to a period of intense jawboning by the central bank.
The RBA's move came as better-than-expected retail sales figures for October boosted expectations that previous rate cuts were supporting growth in non-mining industries.
Retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.5 per cent in October, slightly above economists' expectations of a 0.4 per cent rise, as Australians increased their spending on food, clothing and at restaurants, official data released on Tuesday showed. September sales figures were adjusted upwards to reflect a 0.9 per cent increase.
"Over the past three months, there's a clear improvement in the trend," Deutsche Bank economist Phil O'Donaghoe said. "Retail trade over the past three months is up 0.6 per cent. If you look at the three months before that, it's only up 0.1 per cent."
Balance of payments figures for the third quarter were also seen as broadly positive, with export volumes growing by 0.1 per cent as import volumes fell by 2.4 per cent. Net exports were expected to add 0.7 percentage points to third-quarter gross domestic product.
"There are clear signs that one part of the required growth transition is under way ... The stronger net exports position is, in our view, likely to continue through 2014 and 2015," Commonwealth Bank senior economist Michael Workman said.
The current account deficit for the three months to September widened to $12.7 billion from $12.1 billion in the previous quarter. The terms of trade decreased by 3.3 per cent for the quarter, and was 3.5 per cent lower than a year ago. The latest figures also showed that overseas investors continued to have a strong interest in Australian government bonds, drawn to the lower exchange rate and relatively high yields, analysts said.
Non-residents bought $15.3 billion in Commonwealth securities in the third quarter, the largest net rise since March last year. Foreign holdings of Australian debt rose to a record high of $210.3 billion for the quarter.
Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…
The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the cash rate on hold because they believe the current monetary policy settings are appropriate. They are focused on fostering sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with their targets.
Following the Reserve Bank's decision and comments, the Australian dollar slipped a quarter of a cent to US90.57¢, which is near its November low.
The Reserve Bank considers the Australian dollar to be 'still uncomfortably high,' which is a concern for them as they assess monetary policy.
The Reserve Bank is closely watching movements in the Australian dollar, capital expenditure levels, housing and labor market figures, and potential actions by the US Federal Reserve regarding its bond-buying program.
Better-than-expected retail sales figures for October have boosted expectations that previous rate cuts are supporting growth in non-mining industries, with retail sales rising by a seasonally adjusted 0.5%.
There are clear signs of a positive growth transition, with stronger net exports expected to continue through 2014 and 2015, contributing positively to the GDP.
Overseas investors have shown strong interest in Australian government bonds, with non-residents purchasing $15.3 billion in Commonwealth securities in the third quarter, the largest net rise since March last year.
Australia's current account deficit widened to $12.7 billion for the three months to September, while the terms of trade decreased by 3.3% for the quarter, and were 3.5% lower than a year ago.

