PUNTING SPECTATOR: Not giving up

Dr Turf had a mixed bag last week: some wins in the AFL, but a few losses in the rugby league. But like a good punter he's pushing on and looking for some outsiders in this week's AFL action.

Hello punters, still breathing?

Bit of a mixed bag last week. Week one of the AFL showed some promise with a profit but, boy the NRL... We came back to earth with a mighty thud, but that is the trouble with the early rounds.

But bear in mind, Give Up never won a race, so we’ll still be punting. That said, I do recommend taking it a bit easy over these first few weeks.

The rugby league form still bothers me but I do feel there is some value here in week three. This week, our prices come from Lasseter’s Sports. Check their website for more betting options and as always, prices will change throughout the weekend.

image


Manly have been pitiful so far, and whilst many think they’re unbeatable at home, one side that has had the edge over them has been the New Zealand Warriors. The Kiwis have travelled to Brookvale eight times for five wins, and did thump Manly 36-14 in New Zealand in the latter part of last season. Manly are like a rudderless ship since Michael Monoghan left and I think that the 5 ½ point start for the Warriors is a blessed gift.

Penrith have been copping it from all quarters following their disastrous start to 2008 – their approval rating from their own supporters makes Brendan Nelson look like Princess Popular. Souths haven’t been much better as they are also maidens, but Penrith showed me enough last week to suggest that they should be shorter than the $1.77 on offer. Now look, I am normally a forgiving type – just ask my recalcitrant children – but this is the last chance for the Panthers. If they can’t beat Souths then I will personally wrap the wooden spoon now and send it to the foot of the Blue Mountains.

Let's turn to the AFL now. Here are the prices for round two:

image


The form was reasonably true last week. Bar, of course, Melbourne. Their decision to turn up at the 15 minute mark of the last quarter was ill founded – giving teams an 18 goal start has its problems. Geelong returned with a business-as-usual mindset although I am told there could be a couple of changes this week with Gary Ablett and Matthew Scarlett under injury clouds. That could make them vulnerable at the line against Essendon.

The West Coast Eagles have a good record at AAMI stadium and I am severely potting Adelaide this year.

Hawthorn flogged an invisible Melbourne last week and travel to Subiaco to play Freo. I am keen on them as well. I hate tipping teams travelling interstate but we do get better odds as a consolation.

Another travelling team is Port Power taking on one of the real tough assignments of taking on Sydney in Sydney. As with the previous two games they will start the outsiders because of the venue, not on form, and that’s enough to attract my interest.

Finally on Sunday is my best for the round. We got the money with the Tigers last week and I’m going to butter up again with them against the Kangaroos, who were utterly miserable in round one. The $2.25 for a Richmond win looks a spoil to me.

Good luck and good punting, and hey, let’s be careful out there.