PUNTING SPECTATOR: A sporting correction

In the wonderful world of sports betting, there's no such thing as a correction. We put in and take out, not every week but most weeks. It's what happens over the year that counts.

Over the years I have observed from a distance a few of those so-called stock market corrections, and I have watched them with this sense of smug self-satisfaction. I’m not proud of it, but it’s true. Thinking to myself, "Look at those fools, they don’t know what they’re doing, they don’t know what has happened to them or why it’s happened".

This sort of thing never happens in the wonderful world of sports betting. There is no such thing as a correction. Basically, we put in and take out, not every week but most weeks. It’s what happens over the year that counts.

So, I am putting the disaster that happened to us last week down as a "correction". That’s my story and I’m sticking to it. I don’t like backing favourites, never have, but we are enduring the greatest glut of favourites winning in the AFL that I can ever remember.

Rule 87, Clause B, subsection xii of the punting rulebook that I wrote clearly says, "DO NOT bet on rugby league games after the State of Origin on those sides backing up". I have to give myself an uppercut for tipping (and backing) Brisbane last week. "They" said that the Broncos side would be as named, but half of the side watched the game from their hospital beds. They got a nice old towelling up from the Raiders, so next time I will be keeping out.

Things return to something like normal this week where we have a full round of 8 games, and a complete list of players to pick a side from. The NRL should take note, that is how a season fixture is supposed to run! After last week's disaster, I reckon that the Dragons can give the Panthers a touch up on Friday night. Penrith have a big injury toll, and the Dragons are near on full strength, so I can’t see any reason why they won’t win more than the 8.5 point spread that the bookies have set.

Brisbane Broncos
Wests Tigers
St George Illawarra
Penrith Panthers
Canterbury Bulldogs
Canberra Raiders
Melbourne Storm
Nth Qld Cowboys
New Zealand Warriors
Manly Sea Eagles
Newcastle Knights
Sydney Roosters
Manly Sea Eagles
Sydney Roosters
Cronulla Sharks
Parramatta Eels

Manly have been going along nicely, but that's all about to end on Sunday. They travel across the ditch to play the Warriors, and with Michael Witt back in the Kiwi's side, I think the Warriors are good things. What’s more, the bookies have them as outsiders, so help yourselves to a bit of the win price as well as the 4 point start.

You may have worked out that I am a self-confessed Titans fan, and with the Gold Coast side back to full strength this week, another win beckons on Monday night against Souths. Perhaps couple the Titans up to win with the previous two tips, and that should work out to a healthy dividend if all three salute.

I am still trying to work out how New Zealand didn’t beat the Poms by more than 19 points last week, but I intend to get square on Saturday night. England scored a try near the finish to reduce the margin to 17, but they got a good run off the referee, especially in the line-outs. That will be policed this week, and although the handicap is higher (-23 ½ ), expect the All Blacks to have passed that mark by half time.

OK, I can’t avoid it any longer. Let’s talk AFL. Tonight’s game is all about flexibility. The Fremantle Dockers, last start winners but 2 and 10 nevertheless, take on the hapless Saints. The Dockers have been backed all week. The $2.20 Freo at the start of the week was a reasonable bet but that went off, I thought the $1.80 the Dockers yesterday was a tad short, but not so the punters and that went off. Freo are now into $1.68. This means but one thing dear punters, we have to back the Saints. $2.40 at the Dome against Fremantle, please. Win, lose or draw, it’s overs. I know they have injuries, I know they have dropped some stars, I know they have three first gamers tonight, but they will still have 22 players representing them tonight. Have something on the Saints.

St Kilda
Port Adelaide
Brisbane Lions
Adelaide Crows
West Coast
Sydney Swans
Western Bulldogs

There is one monty double at short odds worth considering. The disappointing Port Adelaide will beat Richmond on Saturday night and the all conquering Bulldogs will beat Collingwood on Sunday arvo. $1.90 the double looks painless. The only other bet I like is Adelaide away to Brisbane on Saturday night. I know I declared the Crows last week against Hawthorn but they simply slaughtered that game. They just should have won and with Brett Burton back in the side this week will straighten them up. They look a good bet with the 2 goal start.

Chin up punters and good luck, and hey, let’s be careful out there.

InvestSMART FORUM: Come and meet the team

We're loading up the van and going on tour from April to June, with events on the NSW central & north coast, the QLD mid-north coast and in Perth, Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney and Canberra. Come and meet the team and take home simple strategies that you can use to build an investment portfolio to weather any storm. Book your spot here.

Want access to our latest research and new buy ideas?

Start a free 15 day trial and gain access to our research, recommendations and market-beating model portfolios.

Sign up for free

Related Articles