Optimistic figures ignore Australia’s harsh reality

Growth forecasts outlined in the budget should be taken with a grain of salt. The prospect of a collapse in mining investment and an increasing reliance on exports are growing risks.

The federal budget contains modest upgrades on the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook and appears broadly consistent with the outlook provided by the Reserve Bank of Australia last week. Nevertheless there remains considerable uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook -- particularly with regards to the collapse in mining investment and export growth.

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