AT NATIONAL level, the bookies have Labor as overwhelming favourite to win Saturday's election. But at seat-by-seat level, their odds are pointing to a hung Parliament.
On the odds posted late yesterday by online bookmakers Centrebet and Sportsbet, punters are expecting the government to lose a net 13 seats that are notionally Labor after the redistribution leaving it with just 75 of the 150 seats in the House.
In the past 24 hours, the Coalition has swept to favouritism in the Sydney seats of Bennelong and Lindsay, which until now Labor had been expected to hold.
Overall, the bookies have the Coalition as favourites in 13 notionally Labor seats eight of them, seats it won in 2007, and the other five, Liberal-held seats which on 2007 voting, would be Labor under the new boundaries.
But Labor is tipped to pick up just one seat McEwen, on Melbourne's north-east fringe. And as the bookies are calling it, that would be offset by the loss of Melbourne to the Greens.
If all seats go to the current favourites, Labor would have 75 seats in the new 150-member House, the Coalition 71, independents three and the Greens one. To make the House workable, Labor would have to reach some binding agreement with the Greens, and/or one or more independents.
Yet at national level, few are punting on a hung Parliament. The odds are shortening, but late yesterday the hung Parliament was a $3.22 outsider at Centrebet, and $3.85 at Sportsbet.
That was about the same as the odds offered on the Coalition winning a majority: $3.60 at Centrebet and $3.72 at Sportsbet.
Labor remains the clear favourite with punters at both agencies, with Centrebet offering $1.28 for your dollar and Sportsbet $1.27.
Judging from the odds, the closest seats are now the outer western Sydney seat of Lindsay (which the Liberals are tipped to win narrowly) and the Darwin seat of Solomon (which Labor is tipped to retain narrowly).
In Victoria, Labor is firming as favourite to hold Deakin and Corangamite, and to take McEwen. Sportsbet still has Corangamite as the closest seat, but Centrebet's odds are now pointing to a potential cliffhanger in La Trobe, where Liberal Jason Wood won narrowly in 2007 and is tipped to do so again.
In New South Wales, the Coalition is now tipped to hold two seats it notionally lost in the redistribution (Gilmore and Macarthur) and to take Bennelong, Lindsay, Macquarie and Robertson from Labor.
In Bennelong, former Davis Cup hero John Alexander has surged to favouritism over former ABC TV journalist Maxine McKew, potentially wreaking revenge on the defeat she inflicted on prime minister John Howard in 2007.
But in Queensland, where 11 notionally Labor seats are at risk, the bookies have the Coalition as favourite in only five.
WHAT THE PUNTERS THINK
COALITION GAINS (13)
NSW (6), Queensland (5), WA (2)
LABOR GAINS (1)
Victoria
GREEN GAINS (1)
Victoria
YET OVERALL RESULT
LABOR $1.28/$1.27
COALITION $3.60/$3.72
HUNG PARLIAMENT $3.22/3.85
SOURCE: ODDS FROM CENTREBET AND SPORTSBET
Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…
What do the bookmakers (Centrebet and Sportsbet) say about who will win the national election?
At national level the bookies have Labor as the clear favourite. Centrebet was offering $1.28 and Sportsbet $1.27 for a Labor win, while the Coalition was longer at about $3.60 (Centrebet) and $3.72 (Sportsbet).
How do seat-by-seat election odds differ from the national picture?
While national odds favour Labor, seat-by-seat prices from Centrebet and Sportsbet point to a tighter outcome: the bookies have the Coalition favourites in 13 notionally Labor seats and expect only one net Labor gain (McEwen), which would leave Labor on 75 of 150 seats if all favourites win — a result that could require deals with the Greens and/or independents.
Which marginal seats are the closest according to the betting markets?
Bookmakers identify outer western Sydney’s Lindsay (tipped for a narrow Coalition win) and the Darwin seat of Solomon (tipped for a narrow Labor hold) as among the closest. Other marginals the markets flagged include Bennelong, McEwen, Deakin, Corangamite and La Trobe.
What are the betting odds for a hung Parliament and a Coalition majority?
Centrebet had a hung Parliament at $3.22 and Sportsbet at $3.85. Odds for a Coalition majority were similar: about $3.60 at Centrebet and $3.72 at Sportsbet.
How many seats are bookmakers tipping the Coalition to gain and from which states?
Punters’ odds pointed to 13 Coalition gains overall: six in New South Wales, five in Queensland and two in Western Australia.
What seat gains are bookmakers predicting for Labor and the Greens?
Bookies were tipping Labor to pick up one seat — McEwen in Victoria — and the Greens to make one gain, taking Melbourne.
If all current favourites win their seats, what would the House of Representatives look like?
If every seat went to the current market favourites, the House would be Labor 75, Coalition 71, independents 3 and Greens 1 — meaning Labor would need a binding agreement with the Greens and/or one or more independents to make the House workable.
Which New South Wales seats have recently swung to Coalition favouritism in the markets?
In the last 24 hours covered by the article, betting markets swung to the Coalition in the Sydney seats of Bennelong and Lindsay. Markets also had the Coalition favoured to take Macquarie and Robertson, and to hold Gilmore and Macarthur.
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