NRL PREVIEW: Cowboys shot

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ST GEORGE-ILLAWARRA v GOLD COAST (Win Jubilee Oval, Friday, 7:35pm)

On one wing for the Dragons this week will be Reece Simmonds, who played the last of his 55 first-grade games back in 2007 and was recalled from park football for this match. On the other wing is Peni Tagive, whose 10 NRL matches have stretched over four seasons. Alex McKinnon will make his NRL debut at right centre, his only taste of top-grade action so far being 80 minutes riding the pine in round 14 last season when called in as a game-time replacement for the injured Dan Hunt. At left centre is usual lock, occasional prop Matt Prior, who has managed just three tries in his 66 matches, only eight of which have been played at centre. The usual cadre of Gasnier, Cooper, Morris and Nightingale has been broken up by injury and Origin duty, with Nightingale now required at fullback. Yet even with that three-quarter line, and without top playmaker Jamie Soward and backrowers Ben Creagh and Beau Scott, the Dragons should still knock off the Gold Coast, such is the state of disrepair at the Titans at present. The Titans three-quarter line is generally so poor that this makeshift Dragons lot may be more talented and more threatening. The Gold Coast should only have one win this season and they have only twice rolled the Dragons. The Titans seem to be in for their most embarrassing loss of 2011.

BPL Tip: St George-Illawarra by 8
TAB Sportsbet: St George-Illawarra $1.85, Gold Coast $1.95

MANLY v NORTH QUEENSLAND (Brookvale Oval, Saturday, 7:30pm)

Brookvale Oval is not the place the Cowboys want to be this Saturday night, at least not without their two best players, Johnathan Thurston and Matthew Scott. Manly are in white-hot form at present, hammering Brisbane two weeks back before whipping a hapless Canterbury last weekend. They have won all four at Brookvale this year by a cumulative total of 88-38 with tough-as-nails No.6 Kieran Foran – second in the Dally M Medal count – leading the way. They also keep their backline, which has scored ten tries in the last two games, intact, losing only Will Hopoate. The Cowboys would struggle with Thurston and Scott in the team but without their talented co-captains, they are unlikely to threaten Manly at all. The Cowboys have won only two of their last seven without Thurston and five of their last 19 without Scott. Manly in a canter.

BPL Tip: Manly by 20
TAB Sportsbet: Manly $1.15, North Queensland $5.50

BRISBANE v CANBERRA (Suncorp Stadium, Sunday, 2pm)

The Raiders have lost their two best players for this in Josh Dugan and Terry Campese but the Broncos are missing their six stars with Darren Lockyer, Sam Thaiday, Corey Parker, Ben Hannant and Jharal Yow Yeh all lining up for Queensland and Justin Hodges nursing a dodgy hamstring. If Canberra can't win this, the recriminations could be harsh with coach David Furner already on the hot seat after a horrible start to 2010 and a blown 22-0 lead at home last Sunday afternoon. Canberra won at Lang Park last year for the first time since 2004 and though they have a backline working with the same fluency as a game of Mousetrap, the likes of Tom Learoyd-Lahrs, Brett White and Bronson Harrison, all internationals, should get Canberra over the line. They had two good wins before the Cowboys implosion and, on that form, can beat this undermanned Brisbane team.

BPL Tip: Canberra by 10
TAB Sportsbet: Brisbane $2.00, Canberra $1.80

NEW ZEALAND v WESTS TIGERS (Mt Smart Stadium, Sunday, 3pm)

With neither team losing anybody to Origin, this is without doubt the game of the round. Tigers fullback Wade McKinnon returns to New Zealand for the first time against the club he spent four seasons with and he will be hoping to recapture some of the golden touch he displayed at the club, particularly his 2007 form where he was one of the most dangerous kick returners in the NRL. The Tigers custodian has battled injury and form issues over recent years but he is capable of turning it on and he will certainly be up for this match. The Warriors go in big favourites but they are vulnerable. Their form has been tapering off over the last month, culminating in a disappointing loss to the Roosters last Saturday night. Most concerning has been their inability to score points, managing only 12 against an ordinary defensive team like the Bunnies and then just six against the Roosters. The Tigers are a long way off top form but this seems like the kind of game Benji will grab by the scruff of the neck and if the Tigers can manage 18 points, they should take the win back to Australia.

BPL Tip: Wests Tigers by 4
TAB Sportsbet: New Zealand $1.55, Wests Tigers $2.45

MELBOURNE v SYDNEY ROOSTERS (AAMI Park, Monday, 7pm)

As was the case last year, this match has lost much of its lustre due to Origin. Both the Queensland and New South Wales fullbacks are missing, thanks to the unlikely call up of Anthony Minichiello, along with both halfbacks (Cooper Cronk and Mitchell Pearce), Cameron Smith, Dane Nielsen and Nate Myles. The Roosters won the corresponding clash 38-6 in 2010 but the injury toll of the Roosters combined with their attacking ineptitude that has seen them not surpass 13 points since round four suggests a blow out is hardly going to be the order of the night. The Roosters have a class edge in the halves with Todd Carney and Braith Anasta but it is a strong, bustling bunch of forwards that tend to worry the Storm, something the Roosters do not have. Early money has come for the Storm and it is tough to disagree with. Melbourne to prevail in what looks quite the uninspiring affair.

BPL Tip: Melbourne by 6
TAB Sportsbet: Melbourne $1.80, Sydney Roosters $2.00

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