NRL PREVIEW: Beware the Bulldogs' bite
MELBOURNE v ST GEORGE-ILLAWARRA (AAMI Park, Friday, 7:35pm)
Both Melbourne and St George-Illawarra have been eyeing this match off all season. Melbourne, the perennial powerhouse of the last decade coming off their annus horribilis, and St George-Illawarra, the defending premiers whose title will forever have the Storm's absence hanging over it, with the two best coaches in the game, and the two best defensive teams of the NRL era. The two sides haven't met since round four last season when they played at the Docklands as the two title favourites. The Storm won 17-4 that day, continuing on their dominance over the Dragons that stretches right back to the 1999 Grand Final. Since that incredible day, which saw the Storm overcome the Dragons on the back of an infamous penalty try, the Storm have lost only four of 22 contests to St George-Illawarra. Over that period, the Dragons have not won in nine attempts in Melbourne. Only twice have the Dragons managed to score more than 10 points in the southern capital. Despite the Dragons' recent struggles, these two are the premiership favourites and this match will have all the feeling of a heavyweight title fight. This may well be an entre to this year's premiership decider. In what is expected to be a brutal physical contest, Melbourne will play as deserved favourites, even without injured halfback Cooper Cronk. The Storm have won 11 straight and with the Dragons off their game in both attack and defence, Melbourne should collect the points. The injury to St George-Illawarra five-eighth Jamie Soward will not help the Dragons' cause. The Dragons will improve, rising to the occasion, but the clinical savagery of the Storm and their decided home ground advantage should prove the difference.
BPL Tip: Melbourne by 7
TAB Sportsbet odds: Melbourne $1.60, St George-Illawarra $2.30
SOUTH SYDNEY v NORTH QUEENSLAND (ANZ Stadium, Friday, 7:35pm)
Pressure and South Sydney rarely sit well together. Big game success and the Bunnies aren't much friendlier. It has been 25 years since the self-proclaimed "pride of the league” last won a finals match, downing Balmain 15-12 in a dour minor preliminary semi-final that featured just a solitary Phil Blake try. After winning the minor premiership in 1989 (and subsequently being eliminated bang, bang), South Sydney have played only a solitary finals match. This Friday night match against North Queensland may not be an official final but for South Sydney, their season is swinging on it. After a dreadfully slow start snapped the high hopes Rabbitohs fans had in half, Souths have found form over the last three weeks, running in an incredible 137 points in that period. After wins against an out-of-form St George-Illawarra, an insipid Parramatta and a lifeless Canberra, they face a much stiffer test against a North Queensland team who have really hardened up defensively this year. Souths don't usually react well to a dogfight and with the pressure on and Johnathan Thurston better for the run last week, the Cowboys look capable of grinding out a close win.
BPL Tip: North Queensland by 4
TAB Sportsbet odds: South Sydney $1.60, North Queensland $2.30
GOLD COAST v CANBERRA (Skilled Park, Saturday, 5:30pm)
This match could well decide the wooden spoon, with both teams extraordinarily disappointing in 2011 after the Titans made a preliminary final in 2010 and the Raiders were a Terry Campese injury away from making a shock final four appearance. These two have won only 11 games between them and this match will be a battle between who is the most capable of not screwing it up. These two have met nine times and neither team has managed to take both matches in a season. Until this year, each match has gone to the home team, a run broken when appalling Matt Orford and Blake Ferguson errors gave the Titans an extra-time round four win at Canberra Stadium. Both teams are missing their biggest names in this: the Titans Scott Prince, Ashley Harrison and Nathan Friend, the Raiders Josh Dugan and Terry Campese. The Titans have the home ground edge but the Raiders have more upside and against a beatable opponent, may get the money in what will likely be a forgettable match, short on defence and skill.
BPL Tip: Canberra by 8
TAB Sportsbet odds: Gold Coast $1.68, Canberra $2.15
PENRITH v NEW ZEALAND (Centrebet Stadium, Saturday, 7:30pm)
New Zealand coach Ivan Cleary will meet the team he is taking over in 2012 on Saturday night and he may well find himself having second thoughts with the Warriors expected to touch the injury-ravaged Panthers up. Penrith have not been able to take a trick this year with Luke Lewis, Michael Gordon, Lachlan Coote and Travis Burns all out hurt and halfback Luke Walsh in severe doubt with a thumb injury. Michael Jennings returns this week after missing the Tigers clash due to a club-imposed suspension after attending training under the influence of alcohol. Jennings will play his first game at fullback as the Panthers attempt to breathe some life into their attack. It is unlikely to be enough, however, against a Warriors team absolutely flying at present. They have won five of their last six, their only loss coming by a lone point to the high-flying Broncos, and they have done so on the back of brilliant halves play, a destruction of opponents in the middle of the ruck, and a defence that has allowed only 14 tries in six games. The Warriors are chasing down a top-four berth and should have too much class for Steve Georgallis' men.
BPL Tip: New Zealand by 14
TAB Sportsbet odds: Penrith $3.00, New Zealand $1.40
SYDNEY ROOSTERS v CRONULLA (Sydney Football Stadium, Saturday, 7:30pm)
The Sydney Roosters created the upset of the season when they rolled the defending premiers St George-Illawarra on Sunday in a disciplined and driven performance inspired by the betrayal of teammates Todd Carney, Nate Myles and Frank-Paul Nu'uausala, last year's Grand Final defeat and their seemingly hopeless position. They could be in for a letdown this week though as reality sets in that they are without three internationals. Cronulla has won the last three against the Roosters including this corresponding clash last season 42-18, which was highlighted by Nathan Gardner's astonishing 105-metre solo try that was without question the best four-pointer of 2010. Paul Gallen is the best player on the field and his desire and competitiveness will likely be the difference here. The Roosters are vulnerable on the fringes and Gallen is the player to exploit the flimsy tackling of the Tricolours.
BPL Tip: Cronulla by 4
TAB Sportsbet odds: Sydney Roosters $1.53, Cronulla $2.50
MANLY v CANTERBURY (Brookvale Oval, Sunday, 2pm)
The battle of the halfbacks in this clash shapes as an intriguing affair with boom Manly rookie Daly Cherry-Evans squaring off against last year's boom Manly rookie and new Canterbury recruit Trent Hodkinson. The tears were flowing from the Manly faithful when Hodkinson took a big money offer from the Bulldogs but the Eagles recruitment team appeared to know what they were doing with Cherry-Evans a lock for rookie of the year honours in what has been a stellar debut year. With Hodkinson's form only fair in 2011, this will be his time to reassert himself as Cherry-Evans' superior. This will be the first time the Bulldogs No.7 takes on his former club after he missed the 38-4 round 13 demolition through suspension and he will be the centre of attention in this must-win clash for Canterbury. The Bulldogs still hold slim finals hopes and they are capable of upsetting a Manly team whose attitude and application were disappointing against Parramatta. If the Bulldogs play with inside balls and sharpness out of dummy half, Manly are extremely vulnerable.
BPL Tip: Canterbury by 1
TAB Sportsbet odds: Manly $1.30, Canterbury $3.50
WESTS TIGERS v PARRAMATTA (Sydney Football Stadium, Sunday, 3pm)
Two of rugby league's most enigmatic superstars tee off against each other on Sunday afternoon with a Benji Marshall-Jarryd Hayne clash sure to draw plenty of attention. For Marshall, 2011 started off slowly but the ship has seemingly been righted in recent weeks with five straight wins, two of which came against big dogs Manly and St George-Illawarra. For Hayne, 2011 could not have been more disappointing. For the second straight season, Hayne has not been able to find anything near his best and has had to deal with both a positional switch that has been ineffective and the brunt of responsibility for Parramatta's misery. Both Benji and Hayne are class acts but it is Marshall who has the better troops around him and it is Benji who lifts for the bigger games. The Tigers should win this by exposing Parramatta's horrid fringes.
BPL Tip: Wests Tigers by 10
TAB Sportsbet odds: Wests Tigers $1.30, Parramatta $3.50
NEWCASTLE v BRISBANE (Ausgrid Stadium, Monday, 7pm)
There is always something special about Newcastle-Brisbane clashes ever since the two teams entered the League in 1988 together, winning eight of the 25 premierships on offer and never losing a Grand Final. Monday night will be no different with plenty riding on the result and both teams in good nick. Newcastle are fighting for their premiership survival, currently sitting in eighth but hearing the footsteps of South Sydney and Canterbury drawing ever-closer. A loss to the Broncos and both teams could be equal on premiership points with the Knights. Brisbane, looking evermore like the team of destiny as they continue to give every indication that they will send champion skipper Darren Lockyer out a winner, are fighting for a top-two spot and the inside run to a home preliminary final. The Broncos have won eight of their last 10 and have been very good in New South Wales this year, winning four of five by an average margin of 13.25. The Knights are an honest team who have won seven of their last 11 but they have beaten top-eight teams only twice in 11 matches this year. Brisbane just have too much class and will run roughshod through the middle.
BPL Tip: Brisbane by 8
TAB Sportsbet odds: Newcastle $2.30, Brisbane $1.60
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