Net capacity down to wire
The online feast - shown recently by Bureau of Statistics data revealing record downloads in the last three months of 2012 - has helped triple the total capacity of our submarine cable links since 2008 and is expected to continue to grow rapidly, according to market researcher TeleGeography.
In 2008, Australia's lit capacity - or the actual traffic-carrying ability of the system - on all its submarine cable connections was 1.2 terabytes a second. It rose to 3.4 terabytes in 2012. Most of Australia's international internet traffic travels over five cables: Southern Cross Cable Network, Australia-Japan Cable, Telstra's Endeavour, Pipe Network's PPC-1 and SeaMeWe-3.
While its capacity is dwarfed by other regions - the trans-Atlantic region had 19.2 terabytes a second in 2012, intra-Asia 14.4 terabytes and trans-Pacific 13.5 terabytes - TeleGeography analyst Alan Mauldin expects existing cables to be upgraded and joined by new links. "For instance, Southern Cross will be upgraded in a few months to have 2.6 terabytes per second of capacity in service but has the potential to be over 12 terabytes," he said.
"Even with a large amount of potential capacity on existing cables, new cables can still be viable, particularly ones that would improve network resilience - such as a new cable on the west coast of Australia up to Singapore. This route is only served by one older system."
Although a new cable plan by Pacific Fibre recently collapsed, there have been several announcements of other ventures including the Tasman Global Access cable proposed by Telstra, Vodafone and TNZI, the Australia Singapore Cable by Leighton Group and the APX-West by SubPartners.
"There have been various plans for a new west coast cable for over a decade, and it seems likely that at least one of these will be built," Mauldin says. "There does seem be room for another cable from Australia/NZ to the United States as well."
The Hawaiki Submarine Cable, connecting Australia, New Zealand, Hawaii and the US west coast by 2015, is also on the cards. But while TeleGeography notes plenty of unused potential capacity, Hawaiki's chief operating officer, Ludovic Hutier, expects capacity issues as traffic growth is about 50 per cent a year. He forecasts a capacity requirement of 28 terabytes a second by 2019.
Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…
According to market researcher TeleGeography, Australia's lit capacity on submarine cables rose from about 1.2 terabytes per second in 2008 to roughly 3.4 terabytes per second in 2012. That increase has been driven by strong online demand, including record downloads reported in the last three months of 2012.
Most of Australia's international internet traffic travels over five main cables named in the article: Southern Cross Cable Network, the Australia–Japan Cable, Telstra's Endeavour, Pipe Network's PPC-1, and SeaMeWe-3.
In 2012 TeleGeography reported that Australia's capacity (3.4 TB/s) was smaller than other regions: the trans-Atlantic region had about 19.2 TB/s, intra-Asia about 14.4 TB/s, and trans‑Pacific about 13.5 TB/s. TeleGeography expects existing cables to be upgraded and new links added over time.
The article notes several moves: Southern Cross was due for an upgrade to about 2.6 TB/s in the near term with potential to exceed 12 TB/s; proposed new cables include the Tasman Global Access (Telstra, Vodafone and TNZI), the Australia Singapore Cable (Leighton Group), APX‑West (SubPartners), and the Hawaiki Submarine Cable planned to link Australia, New Zealand, Hawaii and the US west coast.
TeleGeography and industry commentary in the article highlight that the west-coast route to Singapore is currently served by only one older system. A new west-coast cable would improve network resilience and diversity, making that route a viable candidate for new investment.
The Pacific Fibre plan recently collapsed, according to the article. However, several other ventures have been announced or proposed (for example, Tasman Global Access, Australia Singapore Cable, APX‑West and Hawaiki), so industry observers expect at least some new cables to be built despite Pacific Fibre's failure.
Hawaiki's chief operating officer, Ludovic Hutier, is quoted saying traffic growth is about 50% a year and he forecasts a capacity requirement of about 28 terabytes per second by 2019. TeleGeography also notes there is a lot of unused potential on existing cables, but significant traffic growth could drive demand for more capacity.
Everyday investors following this sector may want to monitor capacity upgrade announcements (for example Southern Cross), proposed build partners named in the article (Telstra, Vodafone, TNZI, Leighton Group, SubPartners, Hawaiki), industry data from researchers like TeleGeography, and traffic‑growth signals—because upgrades, new builds and resilience improvements can affect operators and infrastructure providers. This FAQ is informational and not investment advice.
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