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Market edges up, but 'cliff' fears still weighing it down

THE sharemarket has closed nearly 1 per cent higher for the week, despite news that US House Republican leaders had walked away from their "plan B" compromise for the country's fiscal cliff negotiations.
By · 22 Dec 2012
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22 Dec 2012
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THE sharemarket has closed nearly 1 per cent higher for the week, despite news that US House Republican leaders had walked away from their "plan B" compromise for the country's fiscal cliff negotiations.

For the week, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 40.5 points, or 0.8 per cent, to 4623.6, while the broader All Ordinaries rose 40.2 points, or 0.8 per cent, to 4635.2.

The local market had performed strongly since Monday, and charged higher again on Friday morning.

It rallied to a fresh 17-month high of 4658.7 points on Friday on anticipation US leaders would strike a fiscal cliff deal before Christmas, thereby allowing the country to function properly in 2013.

But by midday on Friday it emerged that the Republican Party was no longer going to support its own deal - which included a suggestion that taxes rise only for those with an annual income of $1 million or more - and the S&P futures dropped 2 per cent in the blink of an eye, to 1391 (March contract), with global risk assets tumbling.

The ASX 200 was knocked sideways, dropping nearly 50 points from its daily high, to end the day 10.5 points lower overall.

Commonwealth Bank strategist Philip Brown said the events were a big setback, with the bond market rallying accordingly.

"The US 10-year treasury rallied about 5 basis points on the news. Australian rates have fallen about 3 basis points in sympathy with the US move," Mr Brown said. "We are loath to speculate about what will happen from here, but an 'over the cliff' scenario is becoming more and more likely as time passes."

IG Markets analyst Stan Shamu said in a note to clients: "It is clearly all about the fiscal cliff at the moment. With House Republican leaders seeming quite far apart on the proposal and only meeting again after Christmas, fears that we are still far from a deal have become apparent."

Meanwhile, the New York Stock Exchange was bought by a little-known rival - the 12-year old IntercontinentalExchange, headquartered in Atlanta - for $US8 billion.

It comes after the ASX was forced to abandon its merger with the Singapore Exchange last year, after the federal government said it was not in the national interest.

For the week, ANZ rose 30¢, or 1.2 per cent, to $24.95, with representatives from the bank predicting local and global economic conditions would remain soft in 2013, with political uncertainty adding to concerns.

Billabong slipped 11¢, or 11.8 per cent, to 82.5¢. The surfwear retailer's share price plummeted on Thursday after it slashed its earnings forecast and said it was considering its

fifth - and lowest - takeover offer in 10 months.

Commonwealth Bank rose 34¢, or 0.5 per cent, to $62. The bank is taking control of Aussie Home Loans, increasing its stake to 80 per cent and extending its position as the country's No.1 home lender.

Qantas rose 6.5¢, or 4.7 per cent, to $1.46 after the competition watchdog approved plans by the airline to more closely integrate its operations with Jetstar and gave tentative approval for an alliance with Emirates.

Telstra rose 9¢, or 2.1 per cent, to $4.34 after the watchdog said the telco's proposed acquisition of the smaller Adam Internet would reduce competition in phone and internet services.

Whitehaven Coal rose 26¢, or 8.2 per cent, to $3.44 after it finalised a $1.2 billion debt facility that shored up funding for its Maules Creek coal project.
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Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…

The sharemarket finished nearly 1% higher for the week. The S&P/ASX 200 rose 40.5 points (0.8%) to 4,623.6, while the All Ordinaries climbed 40.2 points (0.8%) to 4,635.2. The ASX 200 also hit a 17‑month high intraday at 4,658.7 before later giving back some gains.

News that US House Republican leaders walked away from a 'Plan B' compromise sent global risk assets tumbling and knocked the local market sideways. S&P futures dropped about 2% (to the March contract at 1,391), the ASX 200 fell from its daily high and ended the day lower, and analysts warned the risk of an 'over the cliff' outcome was rising.

The bond market rallied on the setback to US negotiations: the US 10‑year Treasury yield moved about five basis points, and Australian interest rates fell roughly three basis points in sympathy with the US move, according to Commonwealth Bank strategist Philip Brown.

Several companies changed course on the news: ANZ rose about 30c to $24.95 amid commentary that economic conditions would remain soft; Billabong plunged after slashing its earnings forecast and considering a low takeover offer; Commonwealth Bank rose 34c to $62 as it increased its stake in Aussie Home Loans to 80%; Qantas gained after competition watchdog signaled approval for closer Jetstar integration and an Emirates alliance; Telstra rose after a watchdog comment about its proposed Adam Internet acquisition; and Whitehaven Coal jumped after finalising a $1.2 billion debt facility for its Maules Creek project.

Commonwealth Bank increased its stake in Aussie Home Loans to 80%, effectively taking control of the lender. The bank's shares rose about 34c (0.5%) to $62 on the news.

Billabong's share price plunged after the surfwear retailer slashed its earnings forecast and revealed it was considering a fifth — and lowest — takeover offer in 10 months, sparking investor concern and an 11.8% fall to 82.5c.

The New York Stock Exchange was bought by IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) for US$8 billion. The article notes the deal as notable context for exchange consolidation after the ASX was previously forced to abandon a merger with the Singapore Exchange on national interest grounds.

The article highlights that investors should watch progress on the US fiscal cliff negotiations—House leaders were not meeting again until after Christmas—and monitor how that uncertainty affects global risk assets, bond yields and local market sentiment, alongside company‑specific developments like earnings updates, regulatory approvals and major financing moves.