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Low rates set to spur spring housing boom Property Clearance rates soar

Australian home values have posted their strongest quarterly gain since the end of the 2010 boom, with signs that record low interest rates are creating conditions for a new boom this spring.
By · 3 Sep 2013
By ·
3 Sep 2013
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Australian home values have posted their strongest quarterly gain since the end of the 2010 boom, with signs that record low interest rates are creating conditions for a new boom this spring.

The performance comes as figures show the number of investors piling into the market hit a record in one state and residential construction activity has staged its first rally in three months.

RP Data-Rismark report dwelling value rose 4 per cent in the three months to August, posting the highest quarterly rate of capital gain since April 2010, right before the last boom began to fizzle.

In Sydney, dwelling values shot up 5.4 per cent and Melbourne rose by 4.8 per cent. They increased 3.7per cent in Canberra, 3.4 per cent in Darwin, 3.1 per cent in Perth and 1.7 per cent in Brisbane.

"It's definitely the low interest rates that's driving this activity," said RP Data analyst Cameron Kusher. "The thing from here will be what happens in spring. It's looking like a pretty good spring selling season - the amount of stock on the market is fairly low and clearance rates are quite strong."

Last weekend, nearly 2000 homes went under the hammer around the country and the clearance topped 75 per cent. It was a record 84 per cent in Sydney and a robust 75 per cent in Melbourne, according to analyst groups.

Louis Christopher, managing director of SQM Research, said the country had seen its strongest winter market in years and it was set to continue for spring. "I'm still convinced its a very strong market out there, particularly for Sydney."

Property investors have become an increasingly dominant force driving the market, figures from mortgage broker AFG show.

Nearly half of all mortgages (49.5 per cent) written in NSW in August were to investors, rising from 44.7 per cent last year to hit a new high. In Victoria, the market share for investors rose to 36.7 per cent from 35.2 per cent last year.

"With property prices starting to rise, and rates set to remain low for a while yet, a lot of investors are anticipating the next property cycle," said AFG general manager Mark Hewitt. "The NSW figure is very strong, but in part this is because two thirds of first home buyers exited the market after the withdrawal of buyers' grants."

But RP Data-Rismark has also identified what it believes could be a sign that the strong growth in dwelling values seen in June and July have started to taper off.

The national dwelling value rose just 0.5 per cent over the month, thanks primarily to softer conditions in Sydney (0.6 per cent) and Melbourne (0.2 per cent).

There are also some signs of life in residential construction, with the total number of dwelling approvals jumping 10.8 per cent in July, seasonally adjusted, according to the Bureau of Statistics.

However, much of the strength was seen in the apartment market, where building approvals rose 24.4 per cent compared with 3.9 per cent for detached homes.

In Victoria, unit approvals soared 70 per cent but house approvals fell 1 per cent.

"The big lift this months seems to have been caused by a few large apartment project approvals, particularly in Melbourne and Canberra," said MacroBusiness economist Leith van Onselen.

"If you remove the lumpiness of the apartment market it's still a pretty soft up trend."
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Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…

According to RP Data-Rismark and market analysts quoted in the article, record low interest rates are the main driver. Low rates are encouraging buyers and investors to return to the market, boosting demand and pushing up dwelling values across major cities.

RP Data-Rismark reports a 4% rise in national dwelling values in the three months to August — the strongest quarterly gain since April 2010. Month‑on‑month the national figure was up 0.5%, with softer conditions in Sydney (0.6%) and Melbourne (0.2%).

In the three months to August, the largest quarterly gains were in Sydney (+5.4%) and Melbourne (+4.8%). Other gains included Canberra (+3.7%), Darwin (+3.4%), Perth (+3.1%) and Brisbane (+1.7%), per RP Data-Rismark.

Yes — auction clearance rates have been strong. Nearly 2,000 homes went to auction over one recent weekend and national clearance topped 75%. Sydney reached a record 84% clearance and Melbourne about 75%, indicating robust buyer demand and a healthy spring selling season, according to analyst groups and RP Data commentary.

Yes. Mortgage broker AFG reports investor lending has grown: in NSW almost half of new mortgages (49.5%) in August were to investors, up from 44.7% the prior year. In Victoria investor share rose to 36.7% from 35.2%. AFG’s Mark Hewitt says many investors are anticipating the next property cycle with prices rising and rates expected to remain low.

RP Data-Rismark flagged some early signs of tapering: while quarterly gains were strong, the national monthly increase was modest (0.5%), driven by softer monthly conditions in Sydney (0.6%) and Melbourne (0.2%). Analysts warn to watch whether momentum continues into spring.

The Bureau of Statistics showed total dwelling approvals jumped 10.8% in July (seasonally adjusted). Much of that strength came from the apartment sector, with apartment approvals up 24.4% versus 3.9% for detached homes. In Victoria unit approvals soared 70% while house approvals fell 1%, a pattern analysts describe as partly driven by a few large apartment project approvals.

Analysts suggest tracking a few key indicators: auction clearance rates and the amount of stock on the market (low stock has supported prices), monthly dwelling value movements in Sydney and Melbourne, the share of investor lending (AFG data), and dwelling approvals — especially the split between apartments and detached homes. These factors, combined with the outlook for interest rates, will help signal whether the spring upswing continues.