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Let in the gamblers and bookies but don't call it investment

A lot of people have written articles about how to succeed in the sharemarket. Here's one about how not to (for want of a less polite expression) "fail" in the sharemarket.
By · 30 Jul 2011
By ·
30 Jul 2011
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A lot of people have written articles about how to succeed in the sharemarket. Here's one about how not to (for want of a less polite expression) "fail" in the sharemarket.

Take two "investors". A long-term investor and a short-term trader. Which one is more likely to succeed?

Well, as any stockbroker can tell you, when it comes to survival, there are far more long-term investors than there will ever be short-term traders.

But what they may not point out is that the more enduring nature of the long-term investor is not a function of the fact that they succeed at investing it is a function of the fact that they are patient and patient people make fewer stupid mistakes. Not mistakes like picking the wrong stocks, underperforming or misreading the market but stupid mistakes, terminal mistakes, mistakes that happen when you rush the market with unrealistic expectations about getting rich quick. Mistakes brought on by impatience are what separate the dills from the survivors.

Mistakes like these:

Get-rich-quick products

I used to be staggered by the survival of some of the products that now surround the sharemarket but I have mellowed. Now I put their continued existence down to the fact that people want to gamble, are allowed to gamble and the stock (and forex) market provides conveniently moving numbers on which to gamble. It's a perfect gambling medium so why fight it?

You can't ask everyone to be investment puritans so let them in - let in the gamblers, the bookies and their tricks. This is their market, too. But what I haven't mellowed to, and what shits me and my industry, colleagues and clients still, is that a lot of the advertisements present a gambling product as an investment product that they target not gamblers but a huge body of naive and vulnerable people who cannot - thanks to the appearance of these products in the investment space and to the unwitting endorsement of these products by trusted media outlets that should know better - distinguish between a product that is designed to screw money out of them and investment.

Using leverage

You don't need a lecture on leverage but what may add some value is to make the point that if you have $1 of debt but still invest in the sharemarket, you are leveraged. Investing while you have a mortgage, credit-card debt or loan is being leveraged and if the average return on the sharemarket is 4.1 per cent plus dividends, you must be a goddamn hero in a monster bull market to borrow money at 8 per cent post-tax (equivalent to 14.5 per cent pre-tax for highest-rate tax payers), invest in the sharemarket and come out ahead.

And that's before we take off inflation, tax, dealing costs, fees, trails and the index fudge. It is a basic mistake, especially in this environment, to think that it's clever to invest when you have debt. Thinking you can do better than paying it off in a bear/bore market is a rather hilarious fantasy. Pay off your debt, you goose.

Using derivatives

Classic beginner's mistake. Does everyone have to go through the whole cycle of experience and losses to learn that newbies speculating in derivatives is not clever or normal, or can you take someone's word for it?

Derivatives are not plain vanilla and not everyone is using them and there's a reason for that. The only people who survive the derivatives markets for long (options are just one of the derivatives markets) are professional traders, fund managers or sophisticated wealthy individuals writing call options against existing holdings. But you can trade derivatives if you like. Unrealistic expectations will do that for you.

Trading on charts

Why do you think the gambling arts invite you to a free seminar? To teach you to make $100,000 to $2 million a year like the average forex dealer, or to make you confident enough to trade their product? Hmm, let me think.

Can't afford to lose

I know a guy who can't move without assessing every possible outcome. Cannot step outside the front door without overthinking everything. He is paralysed by possible consequences and because of that is completely unsuited to the sharemarket.

The more fearful you are, the less suited you are to the sharemarket the less capable you are of effective decision making. Investing in fear of a loss renders you hopeless as an investor. If you can't afford to lose, don't play.

Financial patience or financial patient. Your choice.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…

A long‑term investor typically lasts longer not just because they pick better stocks but because they're patient — and patience reduces rushed, terminal mistakes. Short‑term traders chase quick gains, which often leads to impulsive errors. For everyday investors, focusing on a long‑term approach usually reduces costly emotional decisions.

Many get‑rich‑quick products behave like gambling products dressed up as investments. They appeal to people who want to gamble on moving market numbers, and advertising can make them look like normal investment opportunities. Be cautious: if a product promises quick riches, treat it like speculative gambling rather than a core investment.

Leverage simply means using borrowed money. If you have a mortgage, credit‑card debt or a loan and you still invest, you're leveraged. Given average sharemarket returns (the article cites about 4.1% plus dividends) and typical borrowing costs, borrowing to invest can leave you behind once taxes, inflation, fees and trading costs are included. Paying down high‑cost debt first is usually the safer move.

Derivatives (including options) are not plain vanilla and are often a classic beginner's trap. The people who consistently survive trading derivatives are professional traders, fund managers or wealthy sophisticated investors. For most retail investors, derivatives carry high risk and unrealistic expectations — they're best approached only with clear experience and a solid plan.

Free seminars and chart‑trading courses are often designed to sell a product or make attendees confident enough to trade the promoter's offering. They may promise large, unlikely returns. Treat them skeptically, and remember that learning to invest responsibly takes time, not quick fixes.

Excessive fear can paralyse decision‑making and make you ill‑suited to the sharemarket. If you can't accept the possibility of loss, you're unlikely to act effectively as an investor. The article's blunt advice: if you can't afford to lose, don't play — preserve capital first and avoid speculative markets.

Common costly mistakes include chasing get‑rich‑quick schemes, investing while heavily indebted, inexperienced trading of derivatives, being seduced by salesy seminars, and acting from fear or impatience. Survivors tend to be patient, avoid leverage and speculative products, and steer clear of unrealistic expectations.

Financial patience helps you avoid rushing into speculative products and making terminal mistakes driven by unrealistic expectations of quick wealth. Patient investors make fewer impulsive errors, are less likely to fall for gambling‑style offerings, and stand a better chance of reaching their long‑term goals.