Lack of professionals ahead

Trends predict Australia will face serious shortages in the health, education and engineering.

By InvestSMART · 8 Nov 2011

By InvestSMART ·
8 Nov 2011

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Trends predict Australia will face serious shortages in the health, education and engineering.

AUSTRALIA will face a serious shortage of professionals in the health, education and engineering sectors within the next 15 years, an analysis of retirement patterns in an ageing workforce has revealed.

Based on current trends, for every 110 health professionals who retire there will only be 84 qualified people to replace them by 2025, according to the September quarter Clarius Skills Index. The index is based on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations, and analysed by KPMG.

The figures show the country will be unable to maintain self-sufficiency in its supply of health professionals within 15 years. It is an issue being investigated by Health Workforce Australia, which is due to hand down a report on future skills shortages in the health sector within six weeks.

The president of the Australian Medical Association, Steve Hambleton, said the ageing health workforce was a recognised problem that had only been partially improved by a doubling of medical school student intakes in the past four years. That will see graduate numbers hit a peak in 2014.

The general secretary of the NSW Nurses Association, Brett Holmes, said nursing was already suffering a skills shortage, with figures showing that by 2028 there will be a shortfall of about 10,000 health professionals in the state.

In education, KPMG has predicted that only 73 qualified people will be available to fill every 107 jobs created by retirement by 2025, while in engineering, 18 per cent of those working in the sector are due to retire within the next few years.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…

What does the article say about an Australia skills shortage in health, education and engineering?

The article reports an analysis showing Australia is likely to face serious shortages of professionals in health, education and engineering within the next 15 years. The conclusion is based on retirement patterns in an ageing workforce as highlighted by the Clarius Skills Index and KPMG analysis.

How severe is the predicted health workforce shortage by 2025?

According to the September-quarter Clarius Skills Index (analysed by KPMG), for every 110 health professionals who retire there will be only 84 qualified people to replace them by 2025 — indicating the country may not be able to remain self-sufficient in health professionals within 15 years.

What are the specific predictions for the education and engineering workforces?

KPMG’s analysis predicts that in education only about 73 qualified people will be available to fill every 107 jobs created by retirement by 2025. In engineering, roughly 18% of those currently working in the sector are due to retire within the next few years.

Who produced the skills shortage figures and what data did they use?

The figures come from the Clarius Skills Index, which is based on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations, and were analysed by KPMG.

What causes and short-term fixes are mentioned for the ageing health workforce?

The article cites the ageing health workforce as a recognised problem. Steve Hambleton, president of the Australian Medical Association, said doubling medical school intakes over the past four years has only partially improved the situation, and those intake increases will see graduate numbers peak in 2014.

Is nursing already affected, and what does the article say about NSW specifically?

Yes. Brett Holmes, general secretary of the NSW Nurses Association, said nursing is already suffering a skills shortage. The article notes figures showing that by 2028 there will be a shortfall of about 10,000 health professionals in New South Wales.

What is Health Workforce Australia doing about the predicted health sector skill gaps?

Health Workforce Australia is investigating the issue and, according to the article, is due to hand down a report on future skills shortages in the health sector within six weeks.

How should everyday investors follow developments in Australia’s workforce shortages?

Everyday investors can monitor the Clarius Skills Index and KPMG analyses, official ABS and Department publications, and upcoming reports from Health Workforce Australia. The article highlights comments from professional bodies such as the Australian Medical Association and NSW Nurses Association, which are also useful indicators of sector pressure.