Lack of professionals ahead

AUSTRALIA will face a serious shortage of professionals in the health, education and engineering sectors within the next 15 years, an analysis of retirement patterns in an ageing workforce has revealed.

By InvestSMART · 8 Nov 2011

By InvestSMART ·
8 Nov 2011

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Based on current trends, for every 110 health professionals who retire there will only be 84 qualified people to replace them by 2025, according to the September quarter Clarius Skills Index. The index is based on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations, and analysed by KPMG.

The figures show the country will be unable to maintain self-sufficiency in its supply of health professionals within 15 years. It is an issue being investigated by Health Workforce Australia, which is due to hand down a report on future skills shortages in the health sector within six weeks.

The president of the Australian Medical Association, Steve Hambleton, said the ageing health workforce was a recognised problem that had only been partially improved by a doubling of medical school student intakes in the past four years. That will see graduate numbers hit a peak in 2014.

The general secretary of the NSW Nurses Association, Brett Holmes, said nursing was already suffering a skills shortage, with figures showing that by 2028 there will be a shortfall of about 10,000 health professionals in the state.

In education, KPMG has predicted that only 73 qualified people will be available to fill every 107 jobs created by retirement by 2025, while in engineering, 18 per cent of those working in the sector are due to retire within the next few years.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…

What is the projected shortage of health professionals in Australia by 2025?

According to the September-quarter Clarius Skills Index (analysed by KPMG using ABS and government data), for every 110 health professionals who retire there will be only 84 qualified people to replace them by 2025, indicating a significant shortfall in the health workforce.

Which sectors are expected to face the biggest skills shortages in Australia over the next 15 years?

The analysis highlights shortages in three main areas: health, education and engineering. The report warns Australia will face serious shortfalls of professionals in these sectors within the next 15 years.

What data sources and analysis back up the skills-shortage findings?

The findings come from the Clarius Skills Index for the September quarter, which is based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data and information from the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations, and analysed by KPMG.

What action is being taken to address the health workforce shortage?

Health Workforce Australia is investigating the issue and was due to hand down a report on future skills shortages in the health sector within six weeks. The Australian Medical Association also notes that doubling medical school intakes over the past four years has partially helped, with graduate numbers expected to peak in 2014.

How serious is the nursing shortage in New South Wales?

The general secretary of the NSW Nurses Association, Brett Holmes, said nursing is already suffering a skills shortage, with figures showing a projected shortfall of about 10,000 health professionals in the state by 2028.

What are the projected education workforce numbers by 2025?

KPMG's analysis predicts that by 2025 only 73 qualified people will be available to fill every 107 jobs created by retirement in the education sector, pointing to a gap between retirements and incoming qualified staff.

What retirement trends are affecting the engineering workforce?

The analysis notes that around 18% of people currently working in the engineering sector are due to retire within the next few years, contributing to concerns about future skills shortages in engineering.

Why should everyday investors pay attention to skills shortages in health, education and engineering?

Projected shortages in these sectors point to long-term structural pressures on the supply of qualified professionals. While the article doesn't give investment advice, everyday investors may find it useful to monitor reports like the Clarius Skills Index and Health Workforce Australia updates, because workforce constraints can influence demand for services, government policy responses and sector trends over time.