Labor laid to waste as Liberals win the west Historic swing in Penrith byelection

NSW Premier Kristina Keneally tasted the backlash at the polls for the first time yesterday when the staunch Labor voters of Penrith handed their seat to the Liberals for only the second time in 37 years.

The Liberals were claiming a record byelection victory for candidate Stuart Ayres.

With two-thirds of the booths counted, on a two-party preferred basis, they were claiming a record swing of 25 per cent.

ABC election analyst Antony Green had predicted a swing of 25.6 per cent. On the primary vote, Labor saw its figures halved to 24 per cent.

"Right at the start of this, I said this campaign is about respect," Mr Ayres said last night during his victory party at Penrith RSL.

"People in Penrith respect people who work hard, people who are honest, people who have integrity at the core of everything that they do and that's what we have worked hard on for the last six weeks."

To loud cheers, Liberal leader Barry O'Farrell told the faithful: "What we have seen this evening is the Liberal Party win its first seat in western Sydney in 20 years.

"We have seen swings in places like Cranbrook and Kingswood of up to 20 per cent.

"What we have seen is the start of the change that NSW so desperately wants in March next year."

As Liberals celebrated, Labor candidate John Thain cut a sad figure at the nearby Penrith Paceway, resigning himself to his fate with a small number of supporters.

"I said it would be like climbing Everest, I always knew it was going to be difficult," he said.

But he said he was very happy with the support he had received during the campaign from Ms Keneally.

"She rang me every day and I'm very, very happy with the support I received from her."

Greens candidate Susie Wright said her party had "almost doubled" its vote in the seat.

"It's an extraordinary result for us," she said. "A lot of people have voted Green for the first time and this has really raised our profile in western Sydney."

The byelection was forced by the resignation of Labor MP Karyn Paluzzano, who lied to the Independent Commission Against Corruption in one of a number of scandals to rock the state government in recent months. It was seen as a portent of the damage that will be inflicted on Labor at the NSW general election next March.

Mr O'Farrell arrived on the hustings early bearing cinnamon tea cakes. "I am not trying to bribe the voters, just feed the workers," he joked. "These are only for the ones wearing blue shirts."

Mr O'Farrell said the byelection was "an opportunity for people in Penrith and the lower Blue Mountains to vote for the change they so desperately need and the rest of the state wants".

"The swing required to win the seat of Penrith is bigger than the swing required to win the next state election," he said. The Liberals had won only one of the 11 previous elections for the seat of Penrith.

Mr Ayres was accompanied by his wife, Liberal Senator Marise Payne, when he cast his vote at Jamison High School in South Penrith.

"We want to make sure this is an area that people can feel proud of," he said. "To do that you need to make sure you have a local representative who has honesty and integrity at the core of everything they do."

Greens candidate Ms Wright observed: "Two people just walked out and said 'what a waste of money'. People are angry with Labor and they are cynical about the election process. This is a lesson for state and federal governments to learn."

Mr Thain's day ended as badly as it began. He was unable to vote as he lives outside the electorate.

He had likened the task of winning the seat to climbing Mount Kosciuszko. Yesterday he upgraded that assessment - it was the political equivalent of ascending Everest.

He appeared to distance himself from his own party, with no mention of Labor on his campaign T-shirts or posters. "I was very happy to be given the chance to support the Premier, I think she is doing a great job," he said.

Ms Keneally turned out to support Mr Thain after watching her son's under-12 soccer match in the morning. "All we can do now is what we do every election day - let the people decide," she said. "We know it's an uphill battle. We always knew going into this byelection that it was going to be a tough battle."

Ms Keneally was accosted by Greens campaigners during her visit and shown leaflets telling Greens voters to give their preferences to Mr Thain. The Greens alleged the slips were handed out by ALP members who were not wearing official T-shirts - a blatant grab for preference votes as part of a "dirty tricks" campaign. Some federal Labor MPs were brought in to help with last-minute campaigning. Others stayed a mile away.

One federal MP, who had predicted a "horrific" result said: "We're [federal Labor] not helped by the problems at the state level."

Another ventured: "The brand name Labor stinks ... and Kevin [Rudd] is an issue." Yet another described the result in Penrith as an "absolute disaster" for federal MPs whose electorates overlapped the state seat.

The Penrith result does not bode well for the federal seats of Lindsay, Macquarie or Macarthur, all of which the government is hoping to either retain or take from the Liberals. Both Macarthur and Macquarie have wafer-thin margins of 0.2 per cent.

Strategists fear the retirement of former state minister and federal minister Bob Debus from Macquarie could see Labor lose to the popular Liberal MP Louise Markus, who will contest the seat after a redistribution saw much of her existing seat shuffled into Macquarie.

Another federal MP said people he spoke to while doorknocking in Penrith were upset with Labor at both the state and federal levels.

"It's better if people want to argue because it's like they want to be convinced. If they are just quiet and polite it's almost like they have made their minds up."

Go online for the latest voting results and analysis