Kurzweil's singular vision

There's a certain poise to Raymond Kurzweil as he delivers his words, a confident smirk that comes from an implicit belief that mankind is on the verge of a transcendental breakthrough, where a marriage of technology and humans will usher in an age of unlimited prosperity and change the way we are going to live and die.

The American futurist has been called everything from a “restless genius” to a “highly sophisticated crackpot” but there is no denying the fact that when Kurzweil speaks people listen and judging from the wave of optimism that it elicited from the listeners at last week's Creative Innovation summit his message of a technological wonder age provides a potent panacea for the faithful.

That message is composed of taking Moore's Law, which postulates the rate of innovation of computer technology is increasing not linearly but exponentially, and applying the resultant increase of computing power to a number of fields, such as biotechnology, material sciences and nanotechnology.

As far as Kurzweil is concerned we have already seen the paradigm in action in the rapid rise of mobile devices, social networks and the way they have changed the way we interact with each other.

According to Kurzweil, innovation may be unpredictable but there is one aspect that is inherently predictable, the exponential growth in processing power, which is driving the rampant development and adoption of smartphones and tablets.

“It took 400 years for print to become part of everyday life, it took telephones 50 years, mobile phones seven years and social networks two years,” Kurzweil says.

This is just one of the many compelling metrics that Kurzweil uses to highlight his law of accelerating returns which paints a picture of limitless technological growth, the so called “singularity” - a phase characterised by incredible rapid technological change driven by computers that can improve themselves without human intervention.

This growth trajectory transcends beyond gadgets and Kurzweil predicts that exponential growth in technology is going to transform everything from medicine to manufacturing. Indeed, Kurzweil is compelling on the subject of human longevity. As you can see from the video above, in converstation with Business Spectator managing editor James Kirby, his theories if even partially true will be causing headaches for the actuarial industry very soon.

According to Kurzweil, the healthcare sector is poised to make the make the leap from the linear growth model to an exponential one and the implications of this are profound.

After all, the human DNA is nothing but software, software wrapped in protein, and the secret of upgrading that program may soon be within our grasp. Gene therapy, stem cell technology and nanobots, capable of replicating the actions of human white cells, are all set to become a part of everyday medicine within a couple of decades, potentially eliminating diabetes, heart disease and cancer.

Nanobots inside our bodies, limitless energy, and sentient computers, all of this may sound like science fiction but Kurzweil says that every aspect of human life and every industry will be irreversibly transformed by 2029, and the pace of this change will be fed by growth in the information industries, irrespective of the vagaries of the global financial markets. 

According to Kurzweil, mass consumption, as evidenced by the mobile revolution, will keep the juggernaut rolling and as price performance reaches a certain level new applications will explode on to the scene to keep the consumption rate chugging along.

It's a neat theory which understandably has its critics, many of whom baulk at the use of the term exponential to pretty much gloss over any complexity. While Moore's Law has held true so far, there are some who believe that we are getting closer to strict physical limitations that will break the pattern.

Future-proofing businesses

But Kurzweil does have a good track record  when it comes to predictions and if he is even partially right businesses need to pay attention.

Emergent technology isn't about to wash away the way we do business just yet but Kurzweil says its presence and potential impact need to be recognised by organisations.

 “When I read business plans, there's always a sense that the future will be just like present with only a few improvements,” he says

“But the world is changing and it's going to change even faster, at a quicker pace.”

Keeping abreast of that change will require organisations to examine how emergent underlying technologies will affect their business and their market in the years to come.

It should, according to Kurzweil, be a fundamental discipline that should be put into every business plan.

The other important point made by Kurzweil is the role small entrepreneurs will play in creating the technologies of tomorrow. That doesn't refer solely to start-ups but also corporations that Kurzweil says need to ditch the old business model and start thinking about creating an environment which fosters radical thinking and innovation.

Most importantly, it comes down to a willingness to take a risk and picking the right time to redefine the business model. Kurzweil cites Google, Facebook and IBM as good examples of the innovation-driven entrepreneurism and risk taking that organisations need to start thinking about right now to future-proof their business.

New technology doesn't necessarily have to drive the death of existing businesses, provided those at the top are willing to change the management message and allocate sufficient resources to prepare their business for the bigger, better marketplaces of the future.

Promise and peril

Kurzweil's vision of the future should certainly not be underestimated; however, it also raises some fundamental questions about whether humanity as a whole is ready for the supposed utopia. The rise of social media and mobility has highlighted the potential of inherent democratisation of societies driven by technology but it holds promise and peril in equal measure.  We are all connected better than ever before but there are greater risks to our privacy, nanobots may be able to cure ailments that save millions but can equally be devised to make weapons. And will emergent technology successfully bridge the digital divide?

Kurzweil says that while a technology is indeed a double edged sword, constructive applications and their rapid deployment outweigh the peril and will lead to an equitable distribution of the technology across the globe.

“One thing that is easily predictable is that the power of technology is always moving in the right direction, “and Kurzweil believes that this inexorable growth will make it very difficult to prevent the widespread use of new technology.

He cites the ubiquity of mobile phones to illustrate the trend, because a device that was once seen only as a tool for the rich is now part of the global landscape, irrespective of social status

Kurzweil hopes the same will apply to the discoveries, especially in the health sector, that are just around the corner and is adamant that the problems of global poverty, disease, and resource depletion can all be solved through the exponential growth of information technologies.

Of course this potential will still need to be translated into tangible benefits and while technology will give us scale to address the globe's pressing problems how we choose to apply it is still a big unknown.