LONDON: Iran's supreme leader has pledged to confront and defeat the "cancerous tumour" of Israel as international concern grows of a pre-emptive Israeli strike on the Islamic regime's nuclear installations as early as April.
In a two-hour televised speech on Friday, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei defied international sanctions aimed at his country's suspected atomic weapons agenda and promised to retaliate if Israel or the United States opted for military action.
The ayotollah's threats of retaliation came as Leon Panetta, the US Defence Secretary, reportedly said there was a "strong likelihood" of Israel launching a unilateral strike against Iranian nuclear facilities in "April, May or June".
Amid signs of a growing rift between Israel and the US over the use of military force to contain Iran's nuclear ambitions, Mr Panetta said: "Israel has indicated they're considering this, and we have indicated our concerns."
Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, believes Iran's program is entering an "immunity zone" that will put crucial elements deep underground beyond the reach of bunker-busting bombs.
Western allies are worried the international coalition built to impose tougher sanctions on Iran could be wrecked by an Israeli air raid against its nuclear facilities, which Tehran insists are for peaceful purposes.
It would probably prompt immediate retaliation against Israel by Iran or its proxies in the Middle East, and if large population centres in Israel were hit, the US could then be drawn into a conflict in defence of its close ally.
With the drumbeats of war growing louder from Tel Aviv, Ayatollah Khamenei referred to Israel yesterday as a "cancerous tumour that should be cut and will be cut", a comment illustrative of his country's historic antipathy to the Jewish state.
"From now on, in any place, if any nation or any group confronts the Zionist regime, we will endorse and we will help. We have no fear expressing this," said the ayatollah, speaking to mark the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic revolution against the Shah. He also offered a rare affirmation of the open secret that Iran assisted the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas.
"We have intervened in anti-Israel matters, and it brought victory in the 33-day war by Hezbollah against Israel in 2006, and in the 22-day war" between Hamas and Israel in the Gaza Strip, he said.
Although some military and intelligence chiefs in Israel favour caution, the patience of Mr Netanyahu and Ehud Barak, the Defence Minister, is running out. In perhaps the most startling instance of sabre-rattling so far, Moshe Yaalon, who heads Israel's strategic affairs ministry and is a former commander of the military, said all of Iran's nuclear installations were vulnerable to attacks.
However, his comments appeared to contradict the assessments of foreign experts and Israeli defence officials who regard the uranium enrichment facility at Qom as too deep to be hit effectively from the air. The site near the ancient holy city is where the Iranians have begun purifying low enriched uranium towards weapons-grade level.
Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…
What did Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei say and why does it matter to investors monitoring Israel–Iran tensions?
In a televised speech Khamenei called Israel a “cancerous tumour,” pledged to confront it and promised retaliation if Israel or the US took military action. For investors, that strong rhetoric signals increased geopolitical risk in the Middle East that could create market volatility if it leads to military escalation or disrupts diplomatic pressure on Iran.
Is a pre-emptive Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities likely, and what timeline was reported?
US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta was reported to say there was a “strong likelihood” Israel might consider a unilateral strike in April, May or June. The article highlights that Israeli leaders are weighing military options, so the period mentioned was viewed as a possible window for action.
How could an Israeli air raid affect the international sanctions effort against Iran?
The article warns that an Israeli strike could wreck the international coalition that has been built to impose tougher sanctions on Iran. In other words, military action risks undermining diplomatic and economic pressure strategies that rely on international unity.
Could military action against Iran draw the United States into a wider conflict?
Yes. The article notes that immediate Iranian retaliation against Israel or its proxies could hit Israeli population centres and, if that happens, the United States could be drawn into the conflict in defence of its close ally. US officials have already signalled concern about escalation.
Are Iran’s nuclear facilities vulnerable to air strikes, according to the article?
Assessments in the article are mixed. Some Israeli officials claim Iran’s nuclear sites are vulnerable, but foreign experts and certain Israeli defence officials say the Qom enrichment facility is too deep to be effectively hit from the air and that elements may be moving underground into an “immunity zone.”
Do Iran’s threats of retaliation have credibility based on past behavior?
The article notes Khamenei openly affirmed Iran’s past support for Hezbollah and Hamas and pointed to those interventions as contributing to victories in past conflicts (for example, the 2006 Lebanon war). That record suggests Tehran’s threats of proxy retaliation have precedent and should be taken seriously.
What short-term triggers should investors watch that might increase market volatility related to Israel–Iran tensions?
Key triggers mentioned in the article include an Israeli decision to launch a strike, public US statements about likelihood or timing of strikes, signs of immediate Iranian retaliation or proxy attacks, and reports that Iran is moving sensitive nuclear work deeper underground (for example at Qom). Any of these could raise geopolitical risk and investor concern.
How should everyday investors think about the uncertainty coming from rising Israel–Iran tensions?
The article makes clear the situation could escalate quickly and has diplomatic as well as military dimensions. Everyday investors may want to be aware that heightened geopolitical risk can translate into market volatility, and to follow official developments (military moves, diplomatic statements, and assessments of nuclear sites) so they can make informed decisions about portfolio risk exposure.
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