Is this Gillard's GST moment?

Business Spectator

A decade ago, political commentators were mulling over the consequences of the result in the Aston by-election.

Despite its unpopularity (largely a result of ongoing GST issues and petrol prices), the Howard government won the seat, although both major parties experienced swings against them.

On the weekend, in a ten year anniversary interview with ABC's Insiders, John Howard described that success as “the turning point” for his government.

The Aston by-election, followed as it was by the events of Tampa and September 11, enabled Prime Minister Howard to regain his momentum and to reassert himself, and the Coalition, in public favour. 2001 provides some parallels for the current Australian political landscape.

In his weekend interview, John Howard acknowledged that the two aforementioned events did play a role in his government's victory in the subsequent November poll and, without them, he admitted his “...majority would have been smaller.”

In early 2001, the Coalition was polling badly – as Howard said himself “...my poll ratings at the beginning of 2001 were terrible. In fact, they were worse than Kevin Rudd's were when the Labor Party dumped him” – yet he won the federal campaign, with Labor recording its lowest primary vote since 1934.

Of course, his polls were nowhere the dizzying lows that the Gillard government is now experiencing.

Last week's Morgan poll was revelatory with a record two party preferred split of 60.5 per cent Coalition to the ALP's 39.5 – apparently the worst two-party preferred voting result for Labor since the first Roy Morgan Gallup Poll conducted in May 1942.

Unsurprisingly, the Greens were polling a stable 10.5 per cent – given their increasing power and influence – which accompanied a dramatic surge in their media coverage (this is half the battle for a minor party vying for votes).

There was cheering and applause at the National Council meeting of the Greens (held in Brisbane over that weekend, when the carbon price policy was announced), which contrasts markedly with the pain Labor is feeling.

Greens grass roots members and the parliamentary team celebrated the outcome negotiated by their leaders (certainly, $10 billion for renewables is worth writing home about). They have already sent out fundraising letters in an attempt to capitalise on the party's gains.

This rejoicing also compares with the negotiations by the Democrats on the GST twelve years earlier, both in terms of the policy outcomes and in popular and party support.

In 2001, despite a level of disillusionment with the major parties, it was still a polarised campaign which saw minor parties and independents subsumed by the debate about refugees and terrorism.

The current might of the Greens suggests their support levels will continue, given their constituents are largely in favour of a carbon tax (again, no such luck for the Democrats in 2001, still fighting the bug bear of the GST deal).

The Greens may be enjoying applause but, elsewhere, there are disturbing scenes in response to a carbon tax. Images of frenzied MPs at anti-carbon tax rallies and irate community members (on both sides of the debate) interrupting shopping centre walks suggest that if this is the standard of the dialogue, we are all in trouble.

Little wonder that, in an attempt to sell its message without the white noise, the government has launched a $12 million TV advertising campaign.

Beginning last night, the advertisements feature a CSIRO scientist and business-owners with no Cate Blanchett in sight.

Even on this matter, the government is vulnerable, especially given previous Labor party promises not to misuse taxpayer dollars on paid advertising. At least, on this occasion, the government has not invoked emergency powers as it did so despicably for the mining tax issue last year.

Treasurer Wayne Swan justifies the public spend on the grounds that people have a “hunger” for more information. I imagine that most Australians would question if this is the best way to provide such information.

The continuing lack of regulation for the use of taxpayer funds on partisan advertisements by governments and the absence of truth in political advertising legislation remain outstanding political issues.

Ms Gillard's “public information” campaign will come up against an opposing one run by the Australian Trade and Industry Alliance, supported by the coal industry and the Minerals Council.

Arguably, all these advertisements will have a limited audience: the next election is a long way off and, often, big advertising spends between elections do little to influence election outcomes.

No doubt, it's the MPs in the cross-bench hot seats – Andrew Wilkie, Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott (who have pledged to support the tax) – who are among the intended targets for the anti-carbon tax message.

But those organisations backing the purported $10 million anti-carbon tax campaign should be wary: that kind of sustained attack may just strengthen the resolve of those critical MPs whose influence in this debate is considered, by some, to be disproportionate.

Get ready for the politics of fear and misinformation. As a wedge political issue, the carbon tax is working a treat for the Opposition.

Ten years ago, the substantive issue of our economy was gazumped by fear about asylum seekers and security.

If 2001 is any guide, you never know, but in two years time, the carbon issue may have as much electoral impact for the ALP as the GST had for the Coalition. It's hard to imagine now, but I've learnt that, in politics, anything is possible.