Investors have been asking how long the current economic global recovery cycle can last. The fact is, business cycles do not just die off from natural causes, events need to end them. The present modest global recovery, occurring at different rates in different parts of the world, combined with continuing accommodative monetary policy and low inflation, makes it harder to build the excesses which normally end a cycle and this could mean that the current economic cycle is the longest on record.
Indeed, this current global recovery cycle shows no sign of dying out anytime soon. The present scenario should be beneficial for global equities, particularly in higher-growth economies such as the US and UK. If US earnings grow slightly above the nominal US economy, the level of the S&P500 in 2020 could be upwards of 40% above its 2014 peak. That said, while the investment case for the US under the present circumstances is well established, Europe and Asia seem clouded in risk and uncertainty.
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Is this a record economic expansion?
Investors have been asking how long the current economic global recovery cycle can last. The fact is, business cycles do not just die off from natural causes, events need to end them.
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