Investors brace for US debt gridlock
Global markets, including the Asian region, slipped into the red on Friday as financial leaders warned that a US default on its debt obligations could wreak havoc on the US and global economies.
The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index shed 26.9 points to close at 5208 points, recording a 1.9 per cent loss for the week.
Analysts said there would be a period of volatility in financial markets as the US government shutdown dragged on and the political battle turned towards Congress raising of the country's debt limit. Even so, they expected any tussle over the debt ceiling to be resolved eventually but potentially leaving the US economy weakened.
"You will see a growth shock because there will be fiscal austerity resulting from this any way we cut this, and so slower growth is usually consistent with lower bond yields," said Credit Suisse equity analyst Damien Boey, who advised investors to look into buying bonds or bond proxies.
Bond proxies, such as consumer staple companies, utilities, telcos and some REITs, would be attractive during this period of volatility, Mr Boey said. Gold and local larger-cap resource stocks could also prove to be good investment options.
"Larger-cap resources stocks are trading at a considerable discount to earnings ... so even if commodity prices fall, they can absorb that. More than that, they have room to be re-rated from a valuation perspective," Mr Boey said.
RBS senior trader Luke McElwaine said while investors had to remain cautious, there were buying opportunities in the Australian share market, which had remained fairly robust despite the growing jitters around the world.
"We tend to see this as an opportunity rather than a sellout. There's probably a decent rally on the back of this," he said.
"There's some pretty good fully franked dividends on offer in November for ANZ, NAB and Westpac. So ... it's probably not a bad time to be buying some of the good-quality companies, like the BHPs, that have been beaten up over the past 12 to 18 months."
Looking beyond short-term volatility, expectations remained for the global economy to continue to recover after the political tussle was resolved, JBWere executive director Mike Kendall said.
"Europe looks like it is stabilising and Bernanke's tapering is in response to the US economy strengthening. China looks like its economic momentum is going to be a little bit better than the market was expecting, and that could be more positive for commodity prices than expected," he said.
Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…
The article explains that political gridlock in the US over raising the debt ceiling could lead to a US government shutdown or even a default on debt obligations. That risk has already increased global market nervousness and caused falls in equity markets, including the ASX 200. Australian investors should care because a US fiscal shock can slow global growth, push volatility higher and affect Australian shares, commodity prices and bond markets.
According to the piece, global markets slipped into the red and the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index closed down 26.9 points, recording a 1.9% loss for the week. Analysts warned of a period of volatility while the US shutdown and debt-ceiling debate continue.
Analysts in the article suggested looking at bonds or bond proxies such as consumer staple companies, utilities, telcos and some REITs. They also mentioned gold and larger-cap resource stocks as attractive options during heightened market volatility.
Credit Suisse analyst Damien Boey said a fiscal shock from US political wrangling would likely slow growth, which is usually consistent with lower bond yields. That makes bonds and defensive 'bond proxy' sectors (staples, utilities, telcos, some REITs) relatively appealing for capital preservation and income.
Yes. RBS senior trader Luke McElwaine told clients the Australian market had remained fairly robust and that volatility presents buying opportunities rather than a wholesale sell-off. He highlighted potential rallies and good-quality companies that have been beaten up over the past 12–18 months.
The article names major banks ANZ, NAB and Westpac as offering 'pretty good fully franked dividends' in November, and cites BHP as an example of a quality, larger-cap company that has been beaten down and could be worth buying.
Damien Boey noted larger-cap resource stocks are trading at a considerable discount to earnings and can absorb commodity price falls, and may be re‑rated from a valuation perspective. JBWere's Mike Kendall added that Europe looks stabilised, Bernanke's taper reflects US strength, and improving Chinese momentum could be positive for commodity prices.
The overall advice was to hang tight and look for buying opportunities while remaining cautious. Investors could consider defensive assets (bonds or bond proxies), high‑quality large-cap stocks and income plays like fully franked bank dividends, while acknowledging short-term volatility until the US political issues are resolved.
Call 1300 880 160
Start a chat
Schedule a call
