Hugh White: Why I was wrong on China FTA

As Malcolm Cook says, this week's events show that Tony Abbott's strategic policies in Asia have not got in the way of his economic agenda. Mr Abbott has won his free trade agreement with China despite his enthusiastic alignment with Japan and America to resist China's regional ambitions.

So those, like me, who thought it might be otherwise have been proven wrong. When that happens it is a good idea to ask oneself why. Why has President Xi been so warm and generous to Mr Abbott when Mr Abbott has so deliberately opposed himself to China's interests and ambitions? There seem to be three possible explanations:

1. Beijing doesn't really care much about these strategic/political issues, and their importance is outweighed by the economic value to China of the FTA and the diplomatic value of a warmer relationship with Australia.
2. Beijing does care deeply about the strategic/political questions, but doesn't think Australia's views matter, so it is willing to ignore what Mr Abbott says on these subjects.
3. Beijing does care deeply about these issues and does think Australia's views matter, but it decided carrots will work better than sticks. China's leaders may have calculated that the best way to change Mr Abbott's mind and bring Australia closer to China's views would be to offer soothing words and lavish gifts.

Which of these best explains what has happened this week? The Government probably believes it is option 1, and many others will agree. The consensus in Canberra remains that China is not really serious about challenging the US-led order in Asia, because for Beijing the economy always comes first. Hence Xi has been willing to overlook Abbott's strategic policies in pursuit of an economic win for China.

The problem with this explanation is that everything China has said and done in recent years shows that it is very serious about building a new strategic order in Asia. China's ambitions were absolutely clear from Xi's speech to parliament on Monday. It was equally clear from President Obama's speech in Brisbane that he takes China's challenge to the regional order very seriously indeed. That is exactly what his speech aimed to warn us about, in unusually stark terms.

Others too think the same. Mr Cameron's speech to parliament last week, and Mr Modi's yesterday, made plain their concerns about the strength of China's ambitions, and so did Mr Abe's address back in May. Only in Canberra does a consensus still prevail that China is not strongly committed to driving major change to the Asian order. The weight of evidence is strongly the other way, and that makes option 1 look implausible, especially as the economic benefits to China of the FTA are hardly transformational.

What about option 2? For all the recent boasting about Australia coming out as a big regional player, it is possible that some people, even in the Government, still half-believe that what we say on these big issues doesn't really matter to the main players. A reflection perhaps of the 'adolescence' in our approach to foreign policy that Peter Hartcher has recently described.

But on this issue, at least, we should be in no doubt: Australia seems to have acquired quite a prominent place in regional power politics, as shown by the way Obama, Xi, Modi and Abe have all come here to deliver big geopolitical speeches. It would be unwise to believe that the Chinese do not care about Australia's position on Asia's great strategic questions.

That leaves option 3 as the most credible explanation for what has happened. If that is right, Mr Xi and his colleagues are very serious about their strategic ambitions, and do care what Australia thinks. But they concluded that it would be easy to bring us around to their point of view by offering an FTA and some reassuring words.

If that is what they thought then they seem to have been proved right – at least for now. To judge from what Mr Abbott said this week, and from the response of many of our leading commentators, Australia has taken a long step away from the policies he and they have articulated until now, and towards accepting and endorsing Mr Xi's vision of Asia's future under Chinese leadership. This is just what Mr Obama seems to have feared would happen.

But do the Chinese imagine that Mr Abbott's new-found enthusiasm for their vision of Asia will last for long? If so, they will be disappointed. He already took a step away from it in his exchanges with Mr Modi yesterday. What will he say next time he goes to Washington or Tokyo?

So where do we go from here? On the basis of this week's performance, Malcolm and others seem to think Mr Abbott has created a clear and sustainable basis for Australia's relations with China and our position in the power politics of Asia. I'm not so sure.