Headed for a JSF tailspin

Julia Gillard's new cabinet will face a problem no cabinet in Australia has ever faced since the decline of the British Empire in Asia.

If US press reports are right then finally the cabinet will have to face up to the fact that the Joint Strike Fighter, on which Australia's future air defence is based, is a complete disaster. But to discover this, cabinet will have to get its hands on a document that is being selectively leaked to the US press, which appears to blow the lid on the disaster.

In October, tired of all the spin that was coming out of the JSF developer Lockheed Martin, the US government appointed top technical people to have a quick look at where the project was at. They included three very experienced senior engineers (at deputy assistant secretary level in the Pentagon) and two other technical experts. These people had the knowledge and the wisdom to see past the spin used to mask the problems with the JSF.

Their report has been marked 'for US only' but is being leaked in the US press. The first leaks were very favourable and stated that no fundamental design risks with the JSF were identified that were sufficient to preclude further production. This sent the pro-JSF spin machine into overdrive.

But now the detail of the report is seeping out, and if the leaks are half right our worst fears about the project are true.

One report indicates that the expert panel appears to be concerned that there are over 700 JSF change requests at the kick-off stage, another 600-plus at the engineering stage and 500 in manufacturing. Remember that Lockheed has actually made aircraft and is flight testing them so these changes are being made at the same time as manufacturing and testing. The changes will take an average of two years each to fix. Now of course they will be carried out 'concurrently', but this will take a long time and will be incredibly expensive.

It appears that the experts picked holes in the development of most of the aircraft's major systems and the aircraft itself, and pointed out that some key systems of concern are still in the very early stages of testing. Further problems are highly likely. They are concerned about fatigue issues.

Remember that the Russians and Chinese have already developed a superior aircraft, so even if we wait until the next decade for the problems to be fixed, the aircraft will never be competitive.

It's vital that every member of the new Australian cabinet read this report, although the US may be reluctant to show it to us.

It comes after the statement by Vice Admiral David Venlet, who is in charge of the JSF program, virtually admitting that the original concept of the program was flawed (Flying into a defence disaster, December 6).

The Howard government, acting on flawed advice from the JSF developer on which our defence people relied, went for the JSF rather than pressing the US much harder for the F22. There were enormous incentives for Australian manufacturing in the JSF. Some 5,000 to 10,000 Australians are working on the project.

Once the Americans link the Venlet statement with the latest reports, the JSF plug will be closer to being pulled. Australia needs to work hard to convince the US to convert the development breakthroughs and wherewithal put together to manufacture the JSF to be used in building more advanced F-22 Raptors.

Then we will retain an air defence capability. The greatest problem is that the defence chiefs, let alone our politicians, are reluctant to admit errors.