Groundhog Day

Weaker overseas share markets, pressure on key industrial commodities and futures indicating a fall at the Australian opening – sound familiar?

A strong supportive move yesterday after the People’s Bank of China punished yuan shorters could mean the dominance of sentiment in setting market direction may end today. Crucial GDP, industrial production and retail sales numbers will speak to both outright levels of growth and economic transition in China. Combined with a strengthening yuan, in line numbers should put paid to the idea the Chinese economy is unravelling, despite a hard core of bears who will question the accuracy of any data that contradicts their views.

In the lead up to the mid-session data drop traders are likely to focus on the ongoing weakness in oil. Mining and drilling stocks are likely to reprise yesterday’s slump, and gas exposed utility stocks may fall under the same influence. Strength in telcos was a feature of the previous session, and the lower Australian dollar will have day traders looking for international support for banks.