Grange 2008, is it the best?
Given the extraordinary hype over the 2008 and a price hike of more than $100 over the previous vintage, the question I'm most often asked is, is it worth it?
First, a disclosure: I'm not a Grange fanatic, but have a more-than-passing interest in the grand old shiraz as one of the lucky few to have tasted every commercially released vintage, from the 1952 through to this latest release. I've bought it, sold it, tried to invest in it, drank it, spat it, and both ridiculed it and stood in awe. I also have an outstanding commission to write a book on it.
Trainspotters, I'm one of you.
The 1952, 1953 and 1955 are so magically good they border on the ridiculous. So, too, the 1962, 1963, 1965 and 1966. The 1970s is a leaner era; 1971 and 1976 the stars. The 1980s are good: 1982, 1985 and 1986 the champions. Then in 1990 a new golden era of Grange begins: 1990, 1991, 1994, 1996, 1998 are classics in various guises. Since, the hits have kept coming: 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006 and now 2008 Grange are all stellar.
Is the 2008 the best yet, as indicated by the awarding of the label's first perfect score by American publication The Wine Advocate? It's undoubtedly superb, but then so are so many of its predecessors that the 2008 wouldn't be in my top five. Tellingly, it would be in the top 15. The 2010, due in two years, is already touted as another "best ever" in a long line of them.
The crucial point about tomorrow's release is not just its quality, but the market it's being released into. Over the past decade, when asked whether or not Grange is a good financial investment, I've bluntly answered: no. Most vintages of Grange released over the past decade have attracted lower prices at auction than they did at retail.
Now that the release price of Grange has scorched so high, though, I'm rethinking my answer.
Nick Stamford, managing director of wine auction house MW Wines, believes "the 2008 Grange is easily the most hyped vintage since 1998". That's mostly because The Wine Advocate scored it 100 out of 100, followed by Penfolds rushing through a price increase of more than $100 per bottle.
Whopping annual price rises for Grange are nothing new, but this latest spur-of-the-moment hike could herald the start of a new era of increased world demand.
Some perspective from Stamford: "The 1998 was released with an RRP of $400, and traded steadily above $500 in the secondary market soon after release, with some sales as high as $700. The market price ... settled below $400 and is now trading steadily in the mid $500s.
"With the 2008 release ... whether that initial interest fades like the 1998 will depend on just how strong the interest is out of Asia."
Demand in Asia for the 2008 far outstrips supply, Penfolds claims. If this is true, Stamford says, "we could see a sustained increase in price. We won't know for a while whether the hype is true, though, and the Asian wine investment market is notably volatile."
Stamford adds: "Truly great vintages, now entering their prime drinking window (such as 1986, 1990, 1991 and 1996), can be obtained on the secondary market for hundreds of dollars less than the RRP on the 2008 release. I know where my drinking and investment money will go."
Is the 2008 a good investment? The drinker in me hopes it's a flop, but global demand and the richness of the Grange story, and lineage, have me worried.
Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…
Penfolds Grange 2008 went on sale with an asking price of $785 and was awarded a perfect 100 out of 100 score by The Wine Advocate, which helped fuel strong hype around the release.
While the 2008 is widely regarded as superb — helped by the 100-point score — the article's author says it wouldn't be in his personal top five Grange vintages, though it would sit comfortably in the top 15.
The article notes that most Grange vintages released over the past decade have fetched lower prices at auction than at retail, so buying at release is not a guaranteed investment; the author is rethinking this view because of the high release price and strong demand signals, but the long-term investment case depends on sustained global demand.
Historically many released vintages traded at auction for less than retail RRP, though some vintages spike early: the 1998 was released at an RRP of $400 and traded above $500 shortly after release (with some sales near $700) before the market later settled into a different price range.
According to MW Wines’ managing director Nick Stamford and Penfolds’ claims, strong demand out of Asia could lead to sustained price rises for the 2008, but the Asian wine investment market is notably volatile and the long-term effect remains uncertain.
The article points out that truly great older vintages entering their prime drinking window — such as 1986, 1990, 1991 and 1996 — can often be obtained on the secondary market for hundreds of dollars less than the RRP of the 2008 release, making them attractive to both drinkers and some investors.
The jump in price followed the high-profile 100-point score from The Wine Advocate; Penfolds rushed through a price increase of more than $100 over the previous vintage, which helped create one of the most hyped Grange releases since 1998.
The article suggests weighing your goal: if you’re a drinker you might prefer to buy older classics on the secondary market for value; if you’re considering investment, remember past vintages often underperformed at auction relative to RRP and future price performance for 2008 will hinge on sustained global, especially Asian, demand.
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