Export revenue from mining and energy will hit a record $209 billion in the coming financial year, as a wave of new resources projects click into gear, an official forecaster says.
EXPORT revenue from mining and energy will hit a record $209 billion in the coming financial year, as a wave of new resources projects click into gear, an official forecaster says.
Despite commodity price falls in recent months, the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics said yesterday that a rapid expansion of iron ore, liquefied natural gas and coal output would drive higher export earnings.
The bureau's chief economist, Quentin Grafton, said the forecasts assumed some slowing in China and Europe, but increased output would make up for any price falls.
''The continued increase in Australia's minerals and energy export earnings will be underpinned by strong growth in export volumes, particularly for iron ore and LNG following the completion of a number of projects,'' Professor Grafton said.
Shipments of iron ore - the nation's most lucrative export - are forecast to jump by 10 per cent to 510 million tonnes a year, earning miners $67 billion in 2012-13.
The value of liquefied natural gas exports is expected to surge by almost 30 per cent in a year, to $16 billion, as output from Woodside's Pluto plant increases. And a wave of investment in new coalmines is also expected to boost coal export volumes by 13 per cent, raising $48 billion in export revenue.
The Treasurer, Wayne Swan, seized on the figures to justify the mining tax, which will start this Sunday and is opposed by the Coalition.
''These strong figures are yet another sign that Tony Abbott's Chicken Little hysteria is becoming more laughable by the day,'' Mr Swan said. If all the resources investment on the drawing board goes ahead, output in the sector is expected to continue climbing for years to come.
The LNG industry this week predicted Australia could soon become the world's second-largest exporter of the fuel, with eight projects under way across the economy.
While most of the big miners and energy companies are foreign
owned, economists say the export surge will benefit Australia by contributing to economy-wide growth.
The chief economist at JPMorgan, Stephen Walters, said falling commodity prices were likely in years to come, due to the wave of mining investment taking place.
''It will drive prices down because pretty much every country with natural resources is putting in new supply,'' he said.
While weaker commodity prices would drag on growth, he said the increased volumes would provide the economy with a more stable and sustainable source of growth than relying on prices rising.
A weaker outlook for commodity prices have caused the ASX index of mining stocks to slump by about 15 per cent in the past three months
Despite the market jitters, Professor Grafton noted the prices of Australian exports remained well above historical levels.
Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…
What is the forecast for Australia’s mining and energy export revenue?
The Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics forecasts a record $209 billion in export revenue from mining and energy in the coming financial year, driven mainly by a wave of new resources projects increasing output even though some commodity prices have fallen recently.
Which commodities are expected to drive the $209 billion export boom?
The export surge is expected to be driven primarily by iron ore, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal. The bureau expects iron ore shipments to jump 10% to 510 million tonnes (about $67 billion), LNG export value to surge nearly 30% to $16 billion as Woodside’s Pluto output increases, and coal export volumes to rise 13% (raising about $48 billion).
Who released the forecast and what assumptions underpin it?
The forecast comes from the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics. Chief economist Quentin Grafton said the projections assume some slowing in China and Europe, but increased export volumes—especially iron ore and LNG after a number of projects complete—would offset any price falls.
How important is Woodside’s Pluto plant to Australia’s LNG export growth?
According to the article, rising output from Woodside’s Pluto plant is a key factor in the LNG sector’s strength. The bureau expects LNG export value to surge to around $16 billion as Pluto’s output increases.
Will the export surge benefit Australia if many big miners are foreign-owned?
Yes. While most large miners and energy companies are foreign-owned, economists quoted in the article say the export surge will nonetheless benefit Australia by contributing to economy-wide growth through higher export volumes and related economic activity.
How have politicians used the export forecasts, and what about the mining tax?
Treasurer Wayne Swan cited the strong export figures to justify the mining tax, which the article says will start this Sunday and is opposed by the Coalition. Mr Swan also used the numbers in a criticism of opposition leader Tony Abbott.
What do economists say about future commodity prices and the impact of new mining supply?
JPMorgan chief economist Stephen Walters warned that the wave of mining investment adding new supply is likely to push commodity prices down over time. However, he and other economists say the higher export volumes should provide a more stable and sustainable source of growth for the economy than relying on rising prices alone. The article also notes export prices remain well above historical levels.
How has the market reacted so far to the weaker commodity price outlook?
The article reports that the ASX index of mining stocks has slumped by about 15% in the past three months amid the weaker commodity price outlook. Despite those market jitters, analysts in the article highlight strong export volumes and elevated export prices as important considerations for the broader economy.
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