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Free trade door open, or is it just ajar?

It has been billed as a game-changing testing ground for much-needed reforms in the world's second-largest economy, and possibly the most significant act of opening up since China joined the World Trade Organisation more than a decade ago.
By · 30 Sep 2013
By ·
30 Sep 2013
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It has been billed as a game-changing testing ground for much-needed reforms in the world's second-largest economy, and possibly the most significant act of opening up since China joined the World Trade Organisation more than a decade ago.

But for all the burning anticipation surrounding Shanghai's free-trade zone, the extent and timing of the toughest financial reforms remained uncertain, and possibly years away, even as the 28-square-kilometre zone was officially launched in an understated ceremony on Sunday.

A blueprint unveiled by China's State Council cabinet on Friday foreshadowed a range of ambitious reforms, from liberalising interest rates to full yuan convertibility in the pilot zone within the next three years.

"It will become a vehicle to more deeply integrate our country in globalisation and we will work hard to carry out the reform experiments over the next two to three years," the State Council said in a statement.

But the reforms have been outlined only in broad strokes, and hopes of more specific information to be released on Sunday did not materialise.

The driving force behind the free-trade zone has been Premier Li Keqiang, who has said the Shanghai model would be replicated across the country if it proves successful.

Officials in Shanghai have struck a cautious tone, underlining the resistance from the dominant state-owned sector, and the pressure on Shanghai to get things right.

"Some are concerned that the establishment of the Shanghai zone is like letting a wolf through the door. It might expose our uncompetitive industries," Chen Bo, the deputy director of the Shanghai Free Trade Research Centre said.

"There is the possibility that some interest groups, who have benefited from the current financial structure and regulations won't easily give up their vested interests.

"Our government is trying to push things forward, but we do have some [other] powers trying to draw it backward."

One Shanghai-based executive with a major state-owned bank told Fairfax Media that the whole process had appeared "rushed", and a mixture of poor co-operation and lack of enthusiasm from state-owned banks had meant the project lacked impetus.

"We're accustomed to clear instructions from the central government," he said. "But there is a lot of caution."

Nonetheless, excitement over the launch has boosted stocks of Shanghai companies and spurred a rally in the cost of houses and land in areas neighbouring the zone in recent weeks.

Restrictions on foreign investment will be eased inside the zone, which will also loosen controls on 18 service sectors ranging from finance and shipping to culture services.

China will allow foreign banks to skip long and often bureaucratic approval processes when setting up their wholly owned units in the free-trade zone. Pan Zhengyan, the deputy director of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences Financial Centre, said that despite years of financial reform talk China still had to be prudent.

"If the government acts too quickly on financial reform, I think we will see crimes like money-laundering flourish in the zone," he said.

"The government might be wary of such problems but criminals often act a few steps ahead."

State media have touted the Shanghai zone as the most important attempt at economic reform since the creation of the country's first special economic zone in 1980 in Shenzhen, which harnessed cheap labour and helped transform China's manufacturing industry.

But an economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Lu Ting, said such comparisons could prove overstated.

"My overall impression is that it's good but people should avoid being overly excited," he said.
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Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…

The Shanghai free‑trade zone is a 28‑square‑kilometre pilot area launched by China as a testing ground for economic and financial reforms. Investors should care because the blueprint promises measures such as interest‑rate liberalisation, wider yuan convertibility and eased restrictions on foreign investment in select service sectors — changes that could affect Shanghai‑listed stocks, property near the zone and foreign bank access.

China’s State Council blueprint mentions ambitious steps including liberalising interest rates and working toward full yuan convertibility inside the pilot zone within the next two to three years. It also aims to loosen controls across 18 service sectors and make it easier for foreign banks to set up wholly owned units. However, the article notes reforms are described in broad strokes and specific timing remains uncertain.

The plan foreshadows liberalising interest rates and moving toward full yuan convertibility within the pilot zone over the next few years. That could, in time, change currency flows and borrowing costs inside the zone. The article cautions, though, that these changes are not guaranteed and may be phased in slowly.

Yes — the zone is designed to ease restrictions on foreign investment and allow foreign banks to skip some of the long bureaucratic approval processes when setting up wholly owned units. Controls will also be loosened across a range of service sectors such as finance, shipping and cultural services. Still, officials have stressed prudence and details are yet to be fully released.

The article highlights several risks: resistance from powerful state‑owned interests could slow or dilute reforms; some state‑owned banks are cautious or unenthusiastic; authorities worry about crime risks such as money‑laundering if reforms move too fast; and reforms remain vague and could take years. An economist quoted in the piece urged investors not to be overly excited.

Yes. The launch has already lifted shares of some Shanghai companies and sparked a rally in the cost of houses and land in areas neighbouring the new zone, driven by investor and developer excitement about potential future gains.

Premier Li Keqiang has said the Shanghai model could be replicated nationwide if it proves successful. The State Council also said it would carry out reform experiments over the next two to three years. But actual replication depends on results in Shanghai and how much resistance the reforms encounter.

Be cautiously optimistic. The zone could create long‑term investment opportunities in financial services, trade and nearby property, but reforms are broadly defined, may be slow and carry risks. Watch for concrete policy announcements, avoid knee‑jerk buying on early hype, and consider diversified, long‑term positions while monitoring regulatory and market developments.