Scott Rochfort lives in fear of over-regulation.
LET'S hope the ex-Merrilly Lynching financial forecaster Robert Prechter has lost his knack for calling the
market.
His newsletter, the Elliott Wave Theorist, has ominously predicted the Dow Jones Industrial Average "is just a few points away from attaining our ideal target".
"Given the extent of the rise, there is no longer much reason to allow for a more complex corrective pattern to unfold," says Prechter, who is one of the best-known practitioners of the form of the technical analysis developed in the Great Depression by the bean counter Ralph Elliott.
On a positive note Prechter, based in Gainesville, Georgia, reckons the market still might "go to a higher level on a normal retracement range".
Aside from that, "when the market rolls over", we are apparently going to see "the strongest downward wave".
On a wing and a Lowy
The top gun of the property sector, Westfield's David "Maverick" Lowy, is preparing the wheel-chocks for what is expected to be the biggest flying weekend yet at the Temora Aviation Museum he set up in 1999.
The buzz around the Riverina town is over which plane Lowy could pilot and whether his fellow Crown director, James "Ice Man" Packer, could be his wingman.
"On the day they will announce who's flying what," said a spokeswoman for Lowy, who said it was still being worked out what jet the Westfield deputy chairman might pilot.
The air force will be sending two F-18 Hornets for the Father's Day weekend event.
The museum will show off the Australian-built 52-year-old RAAF Sabre fighter jet it has just spent three years restoring.
Fortunately for Westfield shareholders, there are apparently only two pilots in Australia qualified to fly the Sabre and Lowy is not one of them.
The museum also has Australia's two remaining airworthy Spitfires, a Tigermoth, a Meteor fighter, a Vampire and a Cessna A37B Dragonfly previously flown by Lowy.
Having a 2040-metre second runway, Temora arguably has the best airport infrastructure of any small town in NSW.
Savage approach
Leighton Holdings appears to have a novel approach to settling its workplace disputes in the Middle East. The head of Leighton's part-owned Al Habtoor venture, David Savage, this week offered the olive branch to 2000 construction workers who walked off the job in Dubai.
He told ArabianBusiness.com that he managed to get workers to return to work after offering them a sweet deal they could not refuse.
"The company earns value based on its output, so if a worker, including one of the labourers, is productive, then we are happy to share the proportion of revenue," he reasoned, after the local police reportedly moved in to arrest some of the protesting workers.
Workers told the local media they were paid between 500 dirhams ($164) and 700 dirhams ($229) a month. On this basis, it could take a Dubai construction worker 585 years to make the $1.14 million bonus Savage earned in the 2008 financial year.
Comic twist for JJ
Goldman Sachs director Jim Johnson appears to be on a stand-up comedy tour of Australia. "I'm not in favour of over-regulating compensation," he told The Australian newspaper. Mr Johnson, who once ran the imploded investment bank, Lehman Brothers, and Fannie Mae, which was bailed out by taxpayers, said: "I'm not seeking to be controversial but this is a big topic and there has been a lot of focus on this in the US, Europe and Australia." Maybe he is just seeking to be well paid.
Drinks will come later
The debt-laden winemaker Australian Vintage (aka McGuigan Wines) might have to delay the sale of its Loxton winery a little longer.
The Indian winemaker Indage, which last year never got around to paying the $60 million for the Deathstar-looking winery, appears to be having some issues on the home front. According to the Indian financial website livemint.com, at least 250 employees at Indage Vintners have resigned in the past fortnight after the company, according to an unnamed source, had "failed to pay them salaries since at least November 2008".
Another company source told the website that Indage had paid 40 per cent of the unpaid wages on August 31. I have deposited the cheque but will come to know whether the cheque will be honoured or not in a day or two," one happy former employee told the website.
The group's Australian Thachi winery in South Australia's Riverland, meanwhile, is quietly distancing itself from the Indian operations of its parent company. "We have nothing to do with India itself," Thachi's operations manager Tim Pearce assured CBD.
He said Thachi was owned by the company listed by Indage in Britain. Mr Pearce said his staff were still getting paid and everything was OK "at this stage".
The odd literacy issue
Goldman Sachs JBWere's institutional dealing desk, meanwhile, appears to have encountered some literacy problems.
In its afternoon note to clients yesterday, it warned that "finically literate" journalists could soon pressure the Federal Government to roll back its stimulus package and notes that it is "not necessary anymor".
Clarifying the note to CBD, the shark-watching institutional trader, Richard Coppleson,said the Government just needed to cut its proposed stimulus.
"The obvious thing is that if the RBA thinks they cannot wait until March next year to increase rates and instead hike in the next two months, then the Government must listen to what the RBA are [sic] saying to them," he said.
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Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…
What did Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave forecast say about the Dow Jones Industrial Average?
Robert Prechter, author of the Elliott Wave Theorist, warned the Dow Jones Industrial Average was "just a few points away from attaining our ideal target" and suggested that after a possible normal retracement the market could roll over into what he described as the "strongest downward wave." The piece notes Prechter is a well‑known practitioner of the Elliott Wave form of technical analysis.
How should everyday investors view Elliott Wave predictions like Prechter’s Dow forecast?
The article presents Prechter’s comments as a technical‑analysis viewpoint based on the Elliott Wave method developed by Ralph Elliott. It frames his warning as one analyst’s prediction — informative for market perspective but not presented as a certainty — so investors should treat it as one input among many when assessing market risk.
What’s the Westfield and David Lowy story at the Temora Aviation Museum, and does it affect Westfield shareholders?
David "Maverick" Lowy, Westfield’s deputy chairman, is involved with the Temora Aviation Museum’s big flying weekend and there was buzz about which plane he might pilot. The museum has restored aircraft including a 52‑year‑old RAAF Sabre, but the article notes there are apparently only two pilots in Australia qualified to fly the Sabre and Lowy is not one of them — framed as "fortunate" for Westfield shareholders. The coverage is event‑and‑personality focused rather than reporting a material Westfield business development.
How did Leighton Holdings’ part‑owned Al Habtoor venture handle a worker strike in Dubai?
David Savage, head of Leighton’s part‑owned Al Habtoor venture, reportedly persuaded about 2,000 construction workers who had walked off the job in Dubai to return by offering them a "sweet deal" that shared revenue based on productivity. Local police were said to have moved in to arrest some protesting workers, and Savage explained the firm earns value based on output and was willing to share a proportion of revenue with productive workers.
Why might Australian Vintage (McGuigan Wines) delay the sale of its Loxton winery?
The sale to Indian winemaker Indage may be delayed because Indage last year did not complete the $60 million payment for the Loxton winery and has since faced financial and staffing problems. The article reports Indage has experienced resignations and unpaid wages issues, which is creating uncertainty around the transaction timetable.
What problems at Indage were reported that could concern investors?
Reports cited in the article say at least 250 Indage Vintners employees resigned in a fortnight after the company allegedly failed to pay salaries since at least November 2008. A company source said Indage paid 40% of unpaid wages on August 31. The article also notes Indage’s Australian Thachi winery is publicly distancing itself from Indage’s Indian operations.
What did Goldman Sachs director Jim Johnson say about compensation regulation?
Jim Johnson, a Goldman Sachs director who previously ran Lehman Brothers and Fannie Mae, told The Australian he is "not in favour of over‑regulating compensation." He said the topic has drawn a lot of focus in the US, Europe and Australia, and his comment in the article was presented with a wry aside that he might be seeking to be well paid.
What was the controversy over Goldman Sachs JBWere’s institutional note about stimulus and the RBA?
Goldman Sachs JBWere’s institutional dealing desk sent an afternoon note that contained typos — warning that "finically literate" journalists could pressure the government and saying stimulus was "not necessary anymor." The firm’s trader Richard Coppleson later clarified to CBD that their view was the government might need to trim the proposed stimulus if the RBA chose to raise rates sooner than expected.
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