InvestSMART

Falling gold price sparks market rout

As much as $15 billion was wiped off the local market, with goldminers the worst hit after the price of the precious metal continued to fall, while softer than expected Chinese economic growth spooked investors.
By · 16 Apr 2013
By ·
16 Apr 2013
comments Comments
As much as $15 billion was wiped off the local market, with goldminers the worst hit after the price of the precious metal continued to fall, while softer than expected Chinese economic growth spooked investors.

Australian investors retreated from gold and other resources stocks amid concerns the tide was turning against the sector.

The slump follows a selloff in gold that started in the US last week and pushed it to $US1453.93 an ounce on Monday, the first time in 20 months that it has been below $US1500.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 45.6 points, 0.9 per cent, to finish at 4967.9, after earlier dipping to 4933.3, the biggest one-day loss for the benchmark since March 18.

Global miners, hit by weaker commodities prices, extended their losses after the downbeat China data. Top miners BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto dropped 3.1 per cent and 3.2 per cent respectively.

Gold miners were also sold off, with Newcrest Mining tumbling 8.2 per cent and Regis Resources 12 per cent while Kingsgate Consolidated slid 15.2 per cent.

Thomas Averill, at Rochford Capital, said gold could recover after the US and other countries confronted Japan over monetary easing at the G20 meeting this week. The Bank of Japan's loose monetary policies have been pushing down the yen and, as a result, gold.

"I think you'll see the Japanese reassure world leaders that their new monetary policy is not designed to deliberately weaken the yen," he said.

"I would say that gold shouldn't lose much more ... after this week, we are predicting a resumption of the yen trade, which supports the gold price."

The sharemarket was also rattled by weaker Chinese GDP data that showed the world's second largest economy slowing.

Chinese government data showed the economy grew by 7.7 per cent in the first quarter, down from 7.9 per cent in the previous quarter.

It triggered an immediate reaction in the Australian dollar, which fell more than half a cent to US104.50¢.

"The figures were a genuine surprise," ANZ currency strategist Andrew Salter said.

"It showed that most of the weakness in [China's] GDP came from investment, which is obviously the sector that Australia services most closely," he said.

ANZ commodity strategists said the release of weaker-than-expected US retail sales had helped spark Friday's sell-off in gold. "Sentiment was already fragile from news earlier in the week with the Cyprus central bank to sell more than half of its gold holding," they said.

US investment bank Goldman Sachs put a "sell" on the metal last week, sparking a global sell-off.

Gold has dropped 14 per cent so far this year, after more than a decade of gains, as data showed that the US recovery was gaining traction, prompting increased speculation that the central bank will rein in its stimulus program.

Holdings in exchange-traded products fell at a record pace in the first quarter, and have fallen for the past nine weeks.

"The demise of gold is still at an early stage," Georgette Boele, a commodities strategist at ABN Amro Group, said.

"Other assets will become increasingly more attractive as the growth outlook improves."

Gold has ceased to be the haven for investors after it fell when the euro was close to collapse last year, billionaire investor George Soros said in an interview with the South China Morning Post last week. Mr Soros cut his stake in the SPDR gold fund, an exchange-traded fund, by 55 per cent in the December quarter.

Telstra was four cents higher at $4.65 and major banks finished broadly firmer. The country's biggest lender, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, added 0.7 per cent and National Australia Bank gained 0.5 per cent.

Huw McKay, a senior international economist at Westpac, said the Chinese data had pushed the Australian dollar down by adding to weak global sentiment and the gold price decline.

Shares in Tokyo fell 1.6 per cent as the yen rebounded while stocks in Hong Kong were off as much as 1.2 per cent.
Google News
Follow us on Google News
Go to Google News, then click "Follow" button to add us.
Share this article and show your support
Free Membership
Free Membership
InvestSMART
InvestSMART
Keep on reading more articles from InvestSMART. See more articles
Join the conversation
Join the conversation...
There are comments posted so far. Join the conversation, please login or Sign up.

Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…

The market rout was sparked as gold slid below US$1,500 to US$1,453.93 an ounce, erasing about A$15 billion from the local market. The sell-off began in the US, was amplified by softer-than-expected Chinese GDP data and weaker commodities prices, and pushed the S&P/ASX 200 down 45.6 points (0.9%).

Gold miners were the worst hit: Newcrest Mining tumbled about 8.2%, Regis Resources fell around 12%, and Kingsgate Consolidated slid roughly 15.2% as investors retreated from the sector amid the gold price decline.

Yes. Top global miners were down after weaker commodity prices and disappointing China data: BHP Billiton dropped about 3.1% and Rio Tinto fell roughly 3.2%.

Chinese government data showed GDP growth eased to 7.7% in the first quarter from 7.9% the previous quarter. That surprise slowdown dented sentiment for commodity-linked stocks, contributed to the gold sell-off and pushed the Australian dollar down by more than half a cent to about US104.50¢.

Some strategists suggested a recovery is possible. Thomas Averill at Rochford Capital said gold might rebound if Japan reassures world leaders about its monetary policy at the G20 — a move that could support the yen and, in turn, the gold price. However, other commentators noted gold has already fallen about 14% year‑to‑date and ETF holdings have dropped sharply.

Several factors piled up: a 'sell' call on gold from Goldman Sachs, weaker‑than‑expected US retail sales, reports that the Cyprus central bank planned to sell a large portion of its gold holdings, and record outflows from exchange‑traded gold products.

Not all sectors fell. Telstra rose about four cents to $4.65, and major banks finished broadly firmer — Commonwealth Bank of Australia added about 0.7% and National Australia Bank gained roughly 0.5%.

Keep an eye on a few market drivers mentioned in the report: updates on Chinese economic growth and investment activity, central bank policies (especially Bank of Japan and US stimulus expectations), commodity price trends, ETF gold holdings, and currency moves like the Australian dollar and the yen — all can influence gold and commodity stocks.