LIKE its yuletide equivalent, Melbourne Cup eve is abundant with possibility. The deflation of landing nothing better than more sock-drawer filler can wait for now, seemingly everyone can find a reason why their horse can win the big one.
Yesterday's lunchtime crowd left Federation Square either convinced they had the inside running, or more confused than ever. As even the old master, Bart Cummings, said when asked what six decades and a dozen winners had taught him about the key to success: "Glad you asked, I'm still learning myself."
Perhaps a little too readily, the 83-year-old trainer declared he was "not really confident" that either Precedence or Illo could land him a 13th Cup. His caution won't stop many once-a-year punters backing Bart to do it again.
As the only female rider in the Cup, Lisa Cropp will have a big support base, too. Her horse, Glass Harmonium, is a grey another tick for the dollar each-way investors and has a temperament to catch the eye.
"He's one of those horses who should be on a carousel," said Cropp. "He's very beautiful and likes to show off."
Kerrin McEvoy's win on Brew 11 years ago launched him globally, and he will steer the massive Modun 17 hands tall as Sheikh Mohammed's bid to add a Melbourne Cup winner's cheque to his riches continues. McEvoy's report that Modun gave him "a good feel" in trackwork was another set-play of Cup-eve optimism.
Nothing is too gloomy to spin. Shamrocker will jump from barrier 24, so wide her jockey Luke Nolen hoped the pies selling near the outside rail would be warm.
The exalted internationals were on all lips three-quarters of the trainers and jockeys tipped Americain as their horse's greatest danger, while Luca Cumani, who saddles up Drunken Sailor and Manighar, was convinced the victory speech would be made in French.
Alain de Royer Dupre (Americain) was humble, saying all in racing know how hard it is to win the same big race twice. His fellow Frenchman, Mikel Delzangles (Dunaden), preferred to hail the race. "I wish we had something like this in Europe."
Kevin Bamford runs the largest label manufacturer in Australasia, but gleans more fame and joy from his part-ownership of Americain. He also has a chunk of Jukebox Jury, the English stayer with better form than any contender, so has a big chance of extending what he called a year-long party.
If the 2011 Cup is to be an Australian story, there would be none better than victory to Niwot, who co-trainer Wayne Hawkes recalled "smashing" the back of a knee two years ago, and vets in Sydney and Melbourne recommending retirement. "I just hope everyone comes out and supports him," Hawkes said, giving thanks that they were wrong. "Go Aussie, go!"
Aboard Niwot is a genuine battler, 37-year-old Westmeadows native Dean Yendall, who rides six days a week, covers more than 100,000 kilometres a year, and booted home more winners last season than any jockey in the land. Yesterday he packed the cat and dog in the car and drove to a date with his dream.
"I passed a few cars on the way, they'd be thinking, 'There's that Yendall again . . . does he ever slow down'?" he said. His wife, Christine Puls, rode the winner of the first at Hamilton yesterday the family luck may be in.
A thousand rides a season throughout Victoria and into South Australia have earned Yendall a following, and he knows "a lot of two-dollar punters out there" will be with him today. Taking on those big, exotic names won't unsettle him.
"I wouldn't know 'em if I tripped over 'em," he said of the overseas jockeys. "They won't be a concern to me."
Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…
What should once-a-year punters know before placing Melbourne Cup bets?
Once-a-year punters should know the Cup eve atmosphere fuels optimism and mixed signals: trainers can be cautious (Bart Cummings said he wasn’t “really confident”), jockeys and owners spin positives, and crowds often feel they’ve got the inside running. That means emotional betting is common — consider checking form, barrier draw and recent trackwork before staking money.
Which horses and jockeys were highlighted as leading Melbourne Cup contenders in the article?
The article mentions several contenders and riders to watch: Precedence and Illo (Bart Cummings), Glass Harmonium ridden by Lisa Cropp (the only female rider in the Cup), Modun with Kerrin McEvoy, Shamrocker with Luke Nolen, Americain (trainer Alain de Royer Dupre), Dunaden (Mikel Delzangles), Drunken Sailor and Manighar (Luca Cumani), Jukebox Jury, Niwot (co‑trainer Wayne Hawkes) with jockey Dean Yendall, and Brew (Kerrin McEvoy’s earlier winner).
How does barrier draw affect Melbourne Cup betting strategy?
Barrier draw can influence race tactics and perceived value. The article notes Shamrocker will jump from a very wide barrier (24), which trainers and jockeys treat as a handicap that can change betting appeal. Punters often factor a wide barrier into odds assessment because it can force a horse to cover extra ground or get disadvantaged early.
Are international horses considered strong threats in the Melbourne Cup?
Yes — the article says the ‘exalted internationals’ were on many lips and Americain was tipped by trainers and jockeys as the greatest danger. Connections such as Luca Cumani and Mikel Delzangles spoke highly of their runners, and some expected a foreign victory, so international contenders often shape market sentiment.
How should everyday investors interpret trainers’ and jockeys’ comments when evaluating horse racing tips?
Trainers’ and jockeys’ comments can provide useful clues but are often optimistic on Cup eve. For example, Kerrin McEvoy said Modun gave him “a good feel” in trackwork, while Bart Cummings was guarded about his chances. Treat these remarks as one input alongside form guides, veterinary history and barrier draw rather than as definitive predictions.
Does recent trackwork and form matter for Melbourne Cup betting?
Yes — the article highlights trackwork impressions (McEvoy’s ‘good feel’ for Modun) and notes horses with better recent form like Jukebox Jury. Recent workouts and form are practical indicators of fitness and readiness and should be part of your pre-bet checklist.
Is there value in backing local Australian horses or jockeys in the Melbourne Cup?
Local stories can attract strong support: Niwot’s comeback and Dean Yendall’s hardworking profile drew home‑crowd backing, and the article suggests many two‑dollar punters will back familiar local names. Value depends on form and conditions, but hometown narratives often move the market and can create betting opportunities or inflated odds.
What lessons about risk and emotion can everyday investors take from Melbourne Cup punting?
The Cup highlights common behavioural pitfalls: optimism bias (everyone can find a reason their horse will win), herd behaviour (international runners being widely tipped), and spin from connections turning negatives into positives. Everyday investors can apply this by checking fundamentals, avoiding emotional one‑off bets, and treating gambling-like punts as high‑risk, discretionary exposures.
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