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Euro debt deal injects confidence

GLOBAL markets were given a shot of confidence as Europe took a big step towards developing a solution for its financial problems, however business leaders and investors cautioned it was still some way off before the troubled region would be in the clear.
By · 29 Oct 2011
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29 Oct 2011
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GLOBAL markets were given a shot of confidence as Europe took a big step towards developing a solution for its financial problems, however business leaders and investors cautioned it was still some way off before the troubled region would be in the clear.

Equities markets rallied from London to New York, although a rally on the Australian sharemarket that began on Thursday ran out of steam with stocks closing marginally higher.

"Obviously the markets have been very focused on Europe in recent times and certainly the way they've responded in the last 24 hours give you a feeling they're satisfied with what they've seen come out of Europe to date," the chief executive of Macquarie Group, Nicholas Moore, said.

"Given the market was looking for [this solution], it has responded well towards it and we can be hopeful. But of course we're unsure in knowing where we're going to end up."

Even after yesterday's flat performance it has been the best week for the ASX in more than two years. The 5.1 per cent weekly gain is the biggest since July 2009, when the market was climbing back from the depths of the global financial crisis.

Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index ended the day 5.1 points higher at 4353.3 - a gain of just 0.1 per cent.

The Australian dollar surged as much as US4? to an eight-week high, even as expectations spread the Reserve Bank could cut cash rates on Tuesday. The Australian dollar was last night trading at US106.7?, after climbing through the US107? mark.

European leaders this week announced a plan to shore up their bailout facility, pledging new funds for Greece and persuading banks to agree to major write-downs. As part of the plan, euro zone leaders agreed to leverage the ?440 billion ($584 billion) European Financial Stability Facility to ?1 trillion.

While equities rallied, some bond and credit markets barely reacted to the Europe plan, suggesting doubts that this week's agreement will be a long-term solution for the region's substantial debt problem.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…

The euro debt deal was a European leaders' plan to bolster the region's bailout capacity — pledging new funds for Greece, persuading banks to accept major write‑downs, and leveraging the €440 billion European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) up to about €1 trillion. That package boosted market confidence because it increased the apparent firepower to deal with sovereign debt problems, prompting equities rallies, but commentators warned it may not be a guaranteed long‑term solution.

Equities rallied from London to New York after the European announcement, reflecting improved market sentiment. In Australia the earlier rally ran out of steam and stocks closed only marginally higher, but the week still produced the ASX's best weekly gain in over two years.

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 closed slightly higher at 4,353.3 — a gain of about 5.1 points (roughly 0.1%) — and the week delivered a 5.1% rise, the biggest weekly gain since July 2009, even though daily momentum faded late in the session.

The Australian dollar surged to an eight‑week high in response to improved global sentiment, trading around the US1.067–1.07 area after climbing through the US1.07 mark, even as markets continued to price in a possible Reserve Bank rate cut.

Although equities rallied, some bond and credit markets showed little response, which suggests investors and credit markets remained doubtful that this week's agreement would fully resolve the euro zone's deep debt problems. The muted reaction indicates lingering concerns about long‑term effectiveness.

Macquarie Group CEO Nicholas Moore said markets had been very focused on Europe and the recent responses gave a feeling they were satisfied with what had been announced so far. However, he also warned there was still uncertainty about where things will ultimately end up — a cautious view echoed by other business leaders and investors.

No — while the deal helped restore some confidence and led to equity rallies, the article makes clear many investors and business leaders remain cautious. The leverage of the EFSF and bank write‑downs are significant steps, but the muted reaction in some bond and credit markets implies the solution may not be a complete, long‑term fix.

Everyday investors should monitor how bond and credit markets respond (as their muted reaction could signal ongoing risks), watch any follow‑through in equity markets, track currency moves such as the Australian dollar, and keep an eye on central bank signals — for example, the Reserve Bank's potential cash‑rate decisions mentioned in the article. Staying informed and cautious is sensible given the remaining uncertainty.