Thinking about Blackmores
We have held Blackmores for about 15 years. We sold a few about 12 months ago and then some more about 6 weeks ago, as they were getting to be out of balance in the portfolio. They have always performed well and paid a good dividend. They are not widely reported on and I want to know, why they have surged so much this year? Is it a bubble, as they seem to be far to expensive. If we sell, It will have huge capital gains, but I don't want to be greedy, then ride them all the way down!
Editor's response: Thanks for your letter. Our analysts don't cover Blackmores, so we're not able to offer any advice on whether you should buy, sell or hold. However, we did recently publish an interview with fund manager Frank Gooch of Milton, who sounds like he is facing the same question as you! If you're interested, it's here.
Crown and Computershare
Wondering (worrying) about CPU and CWN's respective drastic falls of late and your views on their short to long term prognosis.
Response from Stocks In Value's Jonathan Wilson: Thanks for your letter. Both are good businesses with attractive long term outlooks. Message is definitely don’t worry, although I can’t give personal advice specific to your own situation.
Crown is now priced around the combined value of its Australian businesses (Melb and Perth), which have local monopolies – very high certainty earnings. Price decline probably related to Macau. At current prices investors would be getting CWN’s extensive development pipeline for free.
CPU is very high quality – 70 per cent recurring revenues, sticky customer base. Decline might be related to softness in market activity, which fluctuates. Our thesis is essentially the same as described in our last note: Rate rises to bolster Computershare, June 22.