In this week's essential reading guide Kohler predicts more heady times for the dollar, Gottliebsen explains a Wall Street surge, Bartholomeusz corrects an ore price furphy and Burgess analyses a political surprise.

Prepare for a dollar bounce
Alan Kohler
Given Washington's sequestration stance, central banks are unlikely to swap Australian for US dollars anytime soon. Add unwinding short positions and the Reserve Bank's mood, and the Aussie is set to rise.

What's driving Wall Street higher and higher?
Robert Gottliebsen
Corporate America has been driven up by not just income changes but unnatural economic settings. And in a strange way, the sequester will continue to boost Wall Street.

China's wrong in the iron ore blame game
Stephen Bartholomeusz
Chinese accusations that the big miners have been manipulating the iron ore price are far fetched. In reality it was China's steel mills that led to the recent wild swings in the spot price.

The Baillieu crisis is good for Abbott
Rob Burgess
A 'chaos' narrative of the type dominating federal politics doesn't fit Ted Baillieu's resignation. Most likely, his move will look shrewd by the time of the federal election.

All roads lead towards cash rate neutrality
Stephen Koukoulas
Chances the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates any further are becoming extremely slim as key local and global economic indicators pick up.

China wavers between party and progress
John Lee
Beijing must cede more control to move China towards a stronger and fairer economic model, based on private consumption. Wen Jiabao’s last major speech as Premier suggested courage may still be lacking.

Europe's predictable crisis revival
Oliver Marc Hartwich
Recent data reveals claims that Europe's monetary crisis was ebbing are false. And the window of opportunity for Europe's dawdling leaders to effect real change is closing.

Waking up to a productivity promised land
Jessica Irvine
You wouldn't know it from news reports, but a cyclical improvement in productivity growth appears to be underway. This sudden turnaround has been a long time in the making.

Australia's cotton-wool wrecking ball
Stephen Koukoulas
It's been eight months since the introduction of the carbon price. Instead of 'wiping out jobs', employment is up by 50,000, the stock market is worth hundreds of billions more and inflation is in check.

Telstra's untouchable NBN billions
Stephen Bartholomeusz
Telstra shareholders have nothing to fear from the federal election, with even a diminished national broadband network set to deliver in net present value terms.

Krugman's economic modelling morass
Steve Keen
Paul Krugman is championing John Hicks' IS-LM model as an explanation of today's economic crisis. It's an unrealistic theory that time should have weeded out.



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