Economy's on the up, magpies are swooping, but US just won't budge
The magpies, like others in Canberra, believe they are allowed to swoop as they have entitlements too.
Our pollies and bureaucrats would do well to learn from the great US president Teddy Roosevelt who said the nation's security and prosperity depended on "walking softly but carrying a big stick", which is also how to keep the magpies away.
Perhaps they know that already! Of course, in the case of the US, Teddy's club was the seventh fleet, as part of a military establishment, which included 50 per cent of the world's aircraft carriers in service and had 40 per cent of the world's total military capacity.
However, down under in the bushlands of our nation's capital, some soft, if not ginger, steps of the new government have been accompanied by tough talking about a few issues that have been worrying business.
Its plans to take a stick to some tax swoops, and a few other matters, seem to have got business back out on the park again.
Charlie says business confidence soared last month just as he tried to hire his usual jet-ranger helicopter to travel to his mountain hideaway. He couldn't get one because bookings increased 30 per cent the day after the election.
Bad luck for Charlie but good news for the rest of us. Business confidence is now at its highest in three years. It has risen from minus 5 in July to plus 4 in August as the nation's business people largely saw a Coalition victory on its way. And then it quadrupled to 12 last month. To put these figures in perspective, the long-term average is plus 5.
In simple terms, the economy is about to take off. Confidence can take its time to work its way through the full market but in our advertising world, we know it's a very good sign for ad spending in the first half of next year. We have had three flat years, with business reporters telling us we moved into "negative territory" in the first half of this year.
Louise scoffs at the language. "What on earth does negative 'territory' mean?"
"Means we were in the drink ... and out of our depth," Charlie says.
However, some believe these good signs could be derailed by a US debt default, but I don't think so. For Americans, their Thanksgiving Day, which falls next month, is more than just a feed of turkey and pumpkin pie. It's also about what they call "boosterism" - improving the perception of your community.
I don't think in the end they will allow their Thanksgiving to be cynically debased by opportunistic division. If you can rely on one thing about Americans, it's their pride in the nation.
Frankly, I still can't understand how we let ourselves slip into such a demise with low levels of confidence in ourselves over recent years. We have always been so proud and confident but suddenly we lost it.
But it seems we are on the way back. Cities will be busy again; the retailing season can expect to do well. Car sales are already on the rise and I am told that in inner city areas there is huge demand for cars with sun-roofs. "Why is that?" Louise asks.
"Because it's the only way to get out of your car if you want to avoid being swooped by MAMILs," Charlie says.
"Que?"
"Middle-Aged Men In Lycra ... on bikes."
Well, I have had my moments recently with MAMILs, the homo sapien equivalent of the magpie who come out of nowhere and manage to holster their water bottle and graze the side mirror while banging on the roof yelling "don't open that door".
But I do admire their innovative methods of magpie protection - a cluster of cable ties pointing skywards through their helmets.
So as I join the retail rush that is going to carry us into Christmas, I'm going to get into the queue for a new car, but this time I want one with airbags on the outside.
Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…
The article notes business confidence has jumped to its highest level in three years (rising from -5 in July to +4 in August and then to 12 last month, against a long‑term average of +5). For investors, that’s a positive sign the economy may be turning up, which can lift corporate earnings and consumer demand over time. But confidence usually takes a while to feed through markets, so treat it as a supportive indicator rather than immediate proof to change long‑term plans.
Higher business confidence often leads companies to increase marketing and hiring. The article specifically expects ad spending to pick up in the first half of next year after three flat years, and says the retailing season should do well. For everyday investors, that suggests consumer‑facing sectors — retailers, media, and marketing services — could see improved revenues if the trend continues.
The article acknowledges concerns about a US debt default but argues it’s unlikely — suggesting Americans won’t let political brinkmanship spoil Thanksgiving and national pride will prevent a catastrophic default. While the piece is optimistic, investors should still monitor US political negotiations because a genuine default or prolonged uncertainty could rattle global markets.
According to the article, the new government’s mix of measured steps plus tougher talk on certain issues (like proposed tax changes) reassured business. The immediate market reaction included a 30% jump in bookings for a private helicopter the day after the election — a colorful anecdote that underlines a broader boost in business confidence.
The article highlights advertising and retail as early beneficiaries, with car sales already rising. Inner‑city demand for certain car features (like sun‑roofs) is mentioned as an example of consumer behaviour changes. Everyday investors might watch consumer discretionary names, auto makers/dealers and media/advertising companies for early signs of recovery.
The magpie swooping season and the MAMIL (Middle‑Aged Men In Lycra) anecdotes are local, tongue‑in‑cheek colour used by the author to lighten the piece and illustrate everyday consumer behaviour. They’re not investment advice, but they do signal increased city activity and consumer engagement — themes that tie back to a brighter retail and spending outlook.
Confidence metrics are useful gauges of sentiment but not perfect timing tools. The article stresses that confidence can take time to pass through to actual market performance and company results. Use these figures alongside fundamentals, valuations and a time horizon rather than as the sole trigger to buy or sell.
Yes — the article notes a quirky uptick in demand for cars with sun‑roofs in inner‑city areas (partly joked to avoid magpie swoops), and a general rise in car sales. Such niche consumer trends can signal shifting preferences that matter for specific automotive and accessory businesses, so investors who follow sector micro‑trends may find opportunities.
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