TODAY Premier Ted Baillieu is expected to tell the Liberal Party's administrative committee that the Liberals should not contest the byelection for the Legislative Assembly seat of Niddrie, made vacant by the resignation of former deputy opposition leader Rob Hulls. The case the Premier will make is a pragmatic one, weighing the likelihood of electoral gain against the cost and effort of campaigning. A senior Liberal quoted in The Age yesterday put it this way: ". . . it is expensive, we still need a credible candidate, it would represent a distraction from the government's agenda, we have never won the seat and, frankly, we would be unlikely to win."
It is a familiar enough set of considerations, which has guided the decisions of both the major parties in many byelections, state and federal, in the past. And if politics was about no more than calculations of narrow partisan interest, it would be unobjectionable. The voters of Niddrie, however, would be entitled to see things differently. Yes, they have not returned a Liberal member before, but they can reasonably expect that the Liberals should continue to offer them an opportunity to break with their past. The exercise of choice by a majority, after all, is what confers democratic legitimacy upon a successful candidate. And when one of the major parties declines to contest a byelection in effect, treating a seat as the permanent possession of its rival the voters are insulted and democracy is degraded.
Mr Baillieu should remember the consequences of the Liberals' decision not to contest byelections in 2007 for the seats of Williamstown and Albert Park, which had been vacated by the early retirement of former premier Steve Bracks and his deputy, John Thwaites. Labor retained both seats, as was expected, but the Liberals' refusal to fight denied them any chance of influencing the course of public debate. While the then Labor government contested the seats with the Greens, the alternative government of Victoria became invisible. And for Mr Baillieu as then opposition leader, his party's decision was a humiliation because he had wanted to field a candidate in Albert Park.
Perhaps he now opposes running a candidate in Niddrie because the humiliation still rankles. If so, it is a pusillanimous attitude for a Premier who holds power by the slenderest of majorities a single seat and has some, even if not much, chance of increasing that majority. He should take that chance, and give Niddrie's voters a choice.
Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…
What is the expected decision by Premier Ted Baillieu on the Niddrie by-election?
Premier Ted Baillieu is expected to tell the Liberal Party not to contest the Niddrie by-election, which was triggered by the resignation of former deputy opposition leader Rob Hulls.
Why would the Liberal Party consider not contesting the Niddrie by-election?
The article says the Liberals’ choice is a pragmatic one: contesting is expensive, they need a credible candidate, campaigning would distract from the government’s agenda, and the party has never won Niddrie and would be unlikely to win.
How could the Liberals’ decision not to run in Niddrie affect voters and democratic choice?
According to the article, when a major party declines to contest a by-election it denies local voters a real choice, insults them by treating the seat as a permanent possession of the rival, and thereby degrades democratic legitimacy.
What precedent from 2007 is cited about not contesting by-elections and what were the consequences?
The article cites the Liberals’ decision in 2007 not to contest Williamstown and Albert Park after early retirements. Labor retained both seats as expected, but the refusal to fight denied the Liberals any chance to influence public debate and made the alternative government effectively invisible.
Could the decision to contest or not contest Niddrie affect the stability of the Baillieu government?
The article notes Mr Baillieu holds power by the slimmest majority—a single seat—so contesting Niddrie would offer some, even if small, chance of increasing that majority; not contesting would forgo that opportunity.
What practical factors do party strategists weigh when deciding whether to contest a by-election?
Strategists balance the likelihood of electoral gain against the financial cost and effort of campaigning, the availability of a credible candidate, and whether a campaign would distract from the government’s broader agenda.
Does the article criticise Premier Baillieu’s possible reluctance to field a candidate in Niddrie?
Yes. The article suggests that if Mr Baillieu avoids running because of past humiliation, that would be a pusillanimous attitude for a Premier and that he should take the chance to give Niddrie voters a choice and potentially increase his majority.
Why does the article argue major parties should contest by-elections even when chances of winning are slim?
The article argues contesting preserves democratic legitimacy by giving voters a real choice, keeps the alternative government visible in public debate, and prevents the degradation of democracy that comes from effectively conceding a seat to a rival.
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