Dollar's plunge takes star role as bourse slips in budget week

The sharemarket lost ground this week, slipping 0.6 per cent, but the dollar stole the headlines after dropping like an anvil.

The currency hit a low of US97.36¢ on Friday after weeks of data showing a further recovery in the US economy, and as US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke prepared to speak at a graduation ceremony on Saturday.

After months of tedium, with the currency stuck in a range of US102¢ to US106¢, it sprang to life this week.

It has fallen from US103¢ to below US97.4¢ in 10 days.

Strategists are now split over its direction. Some think it will return above parity soon, while others tip it to weaken.

Interestingly, some investors think the dollar could be reconnecting with commodity price movements after a lengthy separation, so it will be worth seeing what happens in coming months.

Politically, the budget was the main game in town this week, with news the federal government was expecting to deliver a $19 billion deficit for the 2012-13 budget, rather than the predicted $1.1 billion surplus.

For the week, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 lost 25.3 points, or 0.5 per cent, at 5180.8, while the All Ordinaries Index lost 31.3 points, or 0.6 per cent, at 5159.8.

Morgan Stanley's Gerard Minack wrote his last "Downunder Daily" on Friday, signing off for a three-month break before returning to work as a consultant.

He used the note to talk about the investing profession and the difference between amateurs and those who get paid to do it full-time.

In sports, he said, amateurs usually stand no chance against professionals. Few amateurs could hit a winner against Roger Federer, say.

But amateurs frequently do better than the so-called experts when it comes to investing. The problem is that most amateurs "do far worse".

"This keeps professional investors in business (and that keeps people like me employed, which is nice)," Mr Minack wrote. "But it means that returns to investors typically lag benchmark returns by a long margin. The outlook, in my view, is for low returns ahead."

For the week, BHP Billiton lost 34¢, at $34.41, with new chief executive Andrew Mackenzie outlining plans to slash capital spending by almost a fifth.

Commonwealth Bank rose $2.64, at $73.21, and is on track for a record full-year profit of nearly $7.6 billion.

CSR rose 3¢, at $2.03, as the building products group put on a brave face after posting a $147 million loss, saying it believed the housing market was recovering.

Incitec Pivot rose 3¢, at $2.86, despite a fall in first-half profit. The explosives and fertiliser maker urged Australian governments to deal with soaring local gas prices.

Tabcorp Holdings rose 3¢, at $3.57, with the company beginning legal action against the Victorian government over a poker machine levy set to cost the firm millions of dollars.

Virgin Australia Holdings shed 3.5¢, at 42¢. Its shares fell after a profit warning issued by the airline after the market closed on Wednesday.

Wesfarmers gained 60¢, at $42.93. Wesfarmers downgraded its earnings forecast for Target as the troubled department store continues to weigh on the conglomerate's otherwise strong performance.

GrainCorp slipped 6¢, at $12.72, after Australia's largest grains handler reported a one-third profit drop as regulators consider a takeover bid from an American food giant.