Dollar up as Chinese growth matches predictions
China's year-on-year GDP growth for the second quarter slowed to 7.5 per cent, matching forecasts, from 7.7 per cent in the previous quarter, as weaker demand softened output and investment.
The new figures meant China was on track for its slowest growth in 23 years, and its economy had slowed in nine of the past 10 quarters.
A range of other data released on Monday was mixed. Retail sales for June came in above expectations, growing 13.3 per cent year-on-year, but industrial production was 0.2 per cent lower than forecast, reaching 8.9 per cent. Fixed-asset management was slightly below expectations at 20.1 per cent.
China's real estate investment was 20.3 per cent higher in the first half of the year than in the previous corresponding period and property sales soared by 43.2 per cent.
The Australian dollar rose to US91.22¢ on Monday, after sinking to US89.99¢ late on Friday on comments reportedly made by China's finance minister that authorities would be comfortable with slower growth of 7 per cent for the year.
The comments were denied by China's central government and the quoted growth figure revised to 7.5 per cent. The dollar was buying US91.03¢ late on Monday.
The Australian share market closed slightly higher. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 Index gained 7.2 points to finish Monday at 4981.1. The broader All Ordinaries Index added 8.1 points to end the day at 49.65.6 points.
Patersons Securities' economist Tony Farnham said that despite relief buying on the sharemarket investors would expect the slowdown in growth to continue.
"What people will continue to watch is trends in commodity and oil prices and the other indicators that are much more at the coal face such as the PMIs," Mr Farnham said. "They are the things that will be driving our resource majors for the next little while."
Australian mining companies have been among the biggest beneficiaries of China's appetite for natural resources.
Rapid growth saw China replace Japan as the world's second-largest economy in 2010. But moves by the Chinese government towards economic reforms away from investment and towards consumption have sparked fears of a hard landing. .
Japan's largest brokerage Nomura lowered its 2014 GDP forecast for China to 6.9 per cent on Monday, citing expectations of a lower government forecast.
HSBC's chief economist for Australia, Paul Bloxham, said China's growth remained strong compared to that of Western counterparts. "Even though China's growth is slowing, Australia's still tied to the fastest-growth part of the global economy in that it's tied to Asia, which is going to support Australia's growth," Mr Bloxham said. "It seems that Chinese authorities are very much focused on sustainable quality growth rather than pump-priming their economy, and that's actually a positive thing for Australia in the medium term."
RBS currency strategist Greg Gibbs said while the dollar strengthened slightly on Monday, it was under pressure as a commodity currency and could fall as the US dollar continues to rise.
Equity and currency markets are expected to shift attention to the US, with data on retail sales, inflation, industry and housing to be released this week.
Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…
China's year-on-year Q2 GDP slowed to 7.5% and matched analysts' forecasts, which eased immediate fears of a sharper slowdown. For investors this means some relief in markets, but the report also highlighted that China's growth has been slowing (nine of the past ten quarters) and the economy is on track for its slowest annual growth in 23 years — a reminder to watch earnings and commodity demand that depend on Chinese activity.
The Australian sharemarket closed slightly higher after the data. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 gained 7.2 points to finish at 4,981.1, and the broader All Ordinaries rose about 8.1 points to finish near 4,965.6. The move reflected relief buying, but analysts cautioned that the slowdown trend is likely to continue.
The Australian dollar strengthened slightly after the news, rising to about US91.22¢ on Monday (it had dipped to US89.99¢ late on Friday after quoted comments about tolerating 7% growth). By late Monday the dollar was buying about US91.03¢. Currency moves reflected changing sentiment around Chinese growth and commodity demand.
Australian mining companies have been major beneficiaries of China's appetite for natural resources, so a sustained slowdown can weigh on commodity demand and prices. Economists in the article highlighted that trends in commodity and oil prices — plus forward indicators like PMIs — will be key drivers for resource majors, so investors in mining stocks should monitor those indicators closely.
The data mix was uneven: retail sales for June grew 13.3% year-on-year (above expectations), industrial production came in a touch weaker at 8.9% (0.2 percentage points below forecast), and fixed-asset investment was slightly under expectations at 20.1%. Real estate investment was up 20.3% in H1 and property sales jumped 43.2%, signalling pockets of strength despite the broader slowdown.
Some forecasters are trimming expectations — for example, Nomura lowered its 2014 China GDP forecast to 6.9% — while others, like HSBC's Paul Bloxham, stressed that China is still growing faster than many Western economies and that a shift toward sustainable, consumption-led growth could be positive for Australia in the medium term. For investors, this means balancing shorter-term risks with potential longer-term benefits from a more consumption-driven China.
Yes. RBS currency strategist Greg Gibbs noted the dollar had strengthened slightly but remained under pressure as a commodity currency and could weaken if the US dollar continues to rise. Investors should watch commodity price trends, Chinese demand, and major US economic releases that influence the US dollar.
Investors should keep an eye on commodity and oil prices, purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) for signs of activity at the 'coal face', Chinese retail and property figures, and upcoming US data (retail sales, inflation, industrial and housing reports). These indicators will help assess demand, currency direction, and the outlook for resource-focused stocks.
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