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Dollar tipped to fall as low as US95ยข

The Australian dollar has fallen to its lowest level in almost a year, with no signs the sell-off will be over any time soon.
By · 18 May 2013
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18 May 2013
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The Australian dollar has fallen to its lowest level in almost a year, with no signs the sell-off will be over any time soon.

Late on Friday, the currency was trading at US97.37ยข, its lowest level since early June and down from US98.37ยข on Thursday.

The dollar has lost about US6ยข in the past fortnight due to lower interest rates, concerns about the Australian and Chinese economies, and signs of improvement in the US.

ANZ foreign exchange strategist Andrew Salter said traders dumped the currency after it pushed below US98ยข about noon on Friday.

Mr Salter said there were no signs the sell-off would end any time soon and expects it to fall to about US95ยข.

"It would be a brave strategist to predict an end to it [the sell-off] at the moment," he said.

"The momentum is all downwards at the moment."

Meanwhile, bond futures were trading higher after disappointing US economic data registered a fall in Treasury yields.

Local bond futures rose overnight on Thursday as markets on Wall Street weakened and US Treasury yields fell on news of a rise in jobless claims in April.

RBC Capital Markets fixed interest strategist Su-lin Ong said bonds had traded in a narrow band following the overnight move.

The main local driver for bonds next week would be the release on Tuesday of the minutes from the Reserve Bank's May board meeting. The RBA cut the cash rate to a record low 2.75 per cent at the meeting. The recent fall in the Australian dollar would also have an impact on the market, because it could reduce the chance of further rate cuts, she said.

Late on Friday, the June 10-year bond futures contract was trading at 96.835 (implying a yield of 3.165 per cent), up from 96.760 (3.240 per cent) on Thursday. The three-year contract was at 97.490 (2.510 per cent), up from 97.440 (2.560 per cent).
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