Dollar falls in correction
The dollar slipped past US95¢ on Thursday despite data showing that Australian exports to China reached a new peak.
Once the poster child for currency strength, the dollar has shed 10 per cent of its value since it went above US105¢ in January. It was trading at US94.79¢ late on Thursday. It was lower against other currencies, trading at ¥94.10, 61.44 pence and 72.35 euro cents.
"I would describe this as a fundamental correction. I don't think this is an endless spiral," Westpac chief currency strategist Robert Rennie said.
"I think we are re-addressing the overvaluation of the Australian dollar and that with time we will find some stability. But I still think it can go a bit lower in the short term."
Adding to pressure, the head of the Treasury, Martin Parkinson, called on the Reserve Bank to put aside its focus on maintaining inflation within its target band and cut interest rates to stimulate the economy.
Dr Parkinson, a RBA board member, said the central bank should "look through" the possible inflationary impacts of a falling dollar.
The latest currency falls came as Australia's trade balance recorded its third consecutive monthly surplus. Australia had a trade surplus of $28 million in April, following a surplus of $555 million in March.
Investors have become increasingly bearish about the Australian dollar amid questions about quantitative easing programs in the US and Japan, soft Chinese data, weak commodity prices and fears the local economy was not sufficiently rebalancing.
London-based Insight Investment currency head Paul Lambert said he was "short the Aussie dollar" as Australia had "reached a new point in its path".
"Its interest rates are going to start to move toward the rest of the world," Mr Lambert said.
RBS senior currency strategist Greg Gibbs said the weakness in the gross domestic product figures on Wednesday were supportive of investors' theme that the economy was yet moving towards non-mining-led growth.
"The bigger picture sentiment for the [Australian dollar] has now clearly down-shifted and recent economic reports in Australia have deteriorated," Mr Gibbs said.
The long-term outlook for the Australian dollar-British pound cross was looking bearish, he said, and a reflection of the contrasting service sectors in Australia and Britain. Australia's service PMI fell for the second month while the UK's services PMI reached its highest since March 2012.
The dollar weakness was also pulling down local stocks as foreign investors exited the Australian sharemarket with the view to returning when the currency was lower, RBS Morgans senior trader Luke McElwaine said.
Those investors were likely to return if the dollar stabilised in the low 90s, Mr McElwaine said, adding that further rate cuts by the RBA would making higher-yield stocks attractive again.
The sharemarket has unwound most of its gains this year. It was about 11.7 per cent higher since the start of the year until May 14, where it hit a 2013 high of 5220.987. Then it fell, losing about 8.5 per cent in the past three weeks.
Mr Rennie said the speed at which the US dollar-yen moved higher left an "enormous vacuum" in liquidity that the markets had become used to since various governments began money-printing quantitative easing programs. "I think it's that vacuum that essentially has taken the Australian dollar from US103¢ to US95¢," he said. With Bloomberg
Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…
The article describes the move as a "fundamental correction": the AUD fell to its lowest level in 20 months, slipping past US95¢ and trading at about US94.79¢ late on Thursday. It has lost roughly 10% of its value since it was above US105¢ in January.
Investors are reassessing the AUD amid broader economic worries cited in the article: questions about quantitative easing programs in the US and Japan, soft Chinese data, weak commodity prices, deteriorating local economic reports (including GDP and services PMI), and concerns Australia isn’t rebalancing quickly enough.
Westpac’s chief currency strategist Robert Rennie called the move a "fundamental correction" and said it’s not an endless spiral, though it could fall a bit further in the short term before finding stability. London-based Insight Investment’s Paul Lambert said he is "short the Aussie," expecting Australian rates to move toward the rest of the world. RBS’s Greg Gibbs described the longer-term AUD/GBP outlook as bearish given contrasting service-sector performance.
The article says the AUD weakness pulled down local stocks as foreign investors exited the Australian sharemarket, planning to return when the currency is lower. RBS Morgans trader Luke McElwaine noted investors could come back if the dollar stabilises in the low 90s; the sharemarket had earlier unwound most of its gains for the year, losing about 8.5% in the three weeks after a May 14 high.
Despite exports to China hitting a new peak, the currency still fell. Australia recorded its third consecutive monthly trade surplus — $28 million in April following a $555 million surplus in March — but that did not prevent the AUD slide described in the article.
The article reports Treasury head and RBA board member Martin Parkinson urging the RBA to "look through" the inflationary effects of a falling dollar and cut rates to stimulate the economy. RBS Morgans’ Luke McElwaine added that further RBA rate cuts could make higher-yielding stocks more attractive, which in turn could influence when foreign investors return.
Westpac’s Robert Rennie said the speed of moves in the US dollar-yen created an "enormous vacuum" in liquidity after years of quantitative easing. He suggested that vacuum helped take the Australian dollar from around US103¢ to US95¢.
Yes. The article quotes Paul Lambert of Insight Investment saying he is "short the Aussie," reflecting a broader bearish investor stance on the currency amid the economic and market concerns outlined.

