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Construction Shares dumped as job cuts loom Lend Lease hit by slowdown

Investors took the knife to diversified property group Lend Lease after it warned that the global construction sector had deteriorated in the past six months, leading to reduced earnings.
By · 18 Jun 2013
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18 Jun 2013
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Investors took the knife to diversified property group Lend Lease after it warned that the global construction sector had deteriorated in the past six months, leading to reduced earnings.

Its shares slumped as much as 8 per cent and closed 70¢ lower at $8.65 amid fears of job cuts in the construction business, which accounts for about 42 per cent of Lend Lease’s profits.

Chief executive Steve McCann said the 2013 year profit mix had changed, ‘‘with the Asian development, Australian infrastructure development and Australian property businesses performing better than the prior year’’.

He said: ‘‘The underlying construction markets in Australia and Europe and the Middle East have softened in the second half of the current 2013 year, contributing to reduced earnings from the construction businesses in those regions.’’

The group was on track to deliver earnings that ‘‘meet market expectations’’, Mr McCann said. The earnings would be boosted by the sale of a 25 per cent stake in the Singapore Jem Partners retail development fund for $S227 million ($189 million).

At its half-year results in February, the group said profits from the Australian construction business fell to $94 million from $105.4 million a year earlier, due to timing issues. Lend Lease has a market capitalisation of about $5.3 billion and develops, constructs and invests in projects such as the $6 billion Barangaroo South office and residential development in Sydney.

In the past year it has won about $6 billion worth of projects in Australia and has a global construction pipeline of about $17 billion. But the earnings are lumpy and will not flow through to the bottom line for at least two years.

According to Mr McCann, the commercial office development sector was also flat. This was endorsed in a new report from ANZ, which says the broad-based recovery in commercial property appears to have stalled.

‘‘Property market conditions have deteriorated in the past 12 months: tenant demand has weakened, vacancies and incentives have risen and rental growth has slowed, particularly for secondary properties,’’ the bank said.

Mr McCann also unveiled a broad-brush restructure of the business that would consolidate the Abigroup, Baulderstone, Project Management, and Construction and Infrastructure Services businesses.

These were acquired through the Valemus takeover in 2011 from the German constructor Bilfinger Berger for $960 million. They will now be consolidated into building, engineering and infrastructure services sectors.

The flat construction sector has led to brokers cutting back their full-year forecasts. In a research note to clients last week, UBS property analysts retained a ‘‘buy’’ on Lend Lease but they have reduced their price target by about 6 per cent ‘‘to reflect lower forecasts in the Australian construction business resulting in a lower valuation’’.

‘‘Whilst we continue to expect negative sentiment in the construction space, driven by mining services, our Buy rating is premised on Lend Lease’s minimal exposure to mining services- related work (about 8 per cent) and the embedded value in the development business,’’ UBS analysts said.
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Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…

Lend Lease shares fell as much as 8% and closed 70¢ lower at $8.65 after the company warned the global construction sector had deteriorated over the past six months. Investors were particularly worried about the impact on Lend Lease’s construction business, which contributes about 42% of the group’s profits, and the possibility of job cuts in that division.

The company said construction markets in Australia, Europe and the Middle East softened in the second half of the 2013 year, reducing earnings from those regions. At the half‑year, profits from the Australian construction business fell to $94 million from $105.4 million a year earlier, partly due to timing issues.

Management unveiled a broad‑brush restructure that will consolidate Abigroup, Baulderstone, Project Management and Construction and Infrastructure Services into building, engineering and infrastructure services sectors. The article reports investor fears of job cuts in the construction business but does not state specific job losses.

Lend Lease said earnings would be boosted by the planned sale of a 25% stake in the Singapore Jem Partners retail development fund for S$227 million (about $189 million). The company is also consolidating acquired construction businesses and pointing to stronger performance from Asian development, Australian infrastructure development and Australian property businesses.

Lend Lease has won about $6 billion of projects in Australia in the past year and has a global construction pipeline of roughly $17 billion. The article cautions that earnings from those projects are lumpy and likely won’t flow through to the bottom line for at least two years.

Brokers have cut full‑year forecasts for the flat construction sector. UBS retained a 'buy' on Lend Lease but reduced its price target by about 6% to reflect lower forecasts for the Australian construction business. UBS noted Lend Lease’s minimal exposure to mining services (about 8%) and the embedded value in its development business.

A new ANZ report cited in the article says the broad‑based recovery in commercial property appears to have stalled: tenant demand has weakened, vacancies and incentives have risen, and rental growth has slowed, especially for secondary properties. Lend Lease’s chief executive also described commercial office development as flat.

Investors should monitor upcoming earnings updates and the completion of the Jem Partners stake sale, progress on the announced business consolidation, and any further broker revisions. Also keep an eye on construction market conditions in Australia, Europe and the Middle East since these regions are key drivers of Lend Lease's construction earnings.