Commodity exports drop $16 billion
Despite bigger volumes of exports and an easing currency, the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics believes the value of mining and energy exports will be lower this financial year on the back of weaker commodity prices.
The declines were led by the nation's two biggest export industries - iron ore and coking coal - with export values falling $5.4 billion and $9 billion respectively compared with 2012.
Only five of the 15 commodities surveyed by the bureau were found to be defying the trend, with liquefied natural gas exports the standout with a 28 per cent increase in export values; a $3.3 billion improvement on 2012.
Exports of manganese ore, crude oil, alumina and LPG were also said to be worth more in 2013, but only by a combined total of $800 million.
Australia's 15 biggest export commodities are expected to be worth $176.5 billion in 2013, about $15.9 billion below the 2012 result. But despite the gloomy depiction of 2013, the bureau believes a strong rebound will occur in 2014.
By predicting that mining and energy exports will top $196 billion in 2014, the bureau suggests a bigger return from the sector than at any time over the past five years.
The optimism was driven by expectations that the volume of exports will continue to grow, and relief from a lower Australian dollar would become permanent.
The bureau printed a graph which showed the Australian dollar settling below parity with the US currency through 2014, and noted that such an outcome would deliver billions of dollars worth of benefits.
Resources companies may also find more favourable policies next year if Opposition Leader Tony Abbott wins the next election as most polls suggest.
Mr Abbott addressed members of the resources industry at a conference in Canberra on Wednesday, where he reiterated his plan to overhaul the environmental approvals system by creating a "one-stop-shop".
Mr Abbott said he would create a single approvals process "via the state system", which led many observers to assume federal powers over environmental approvals would be watered down. His office was unable to clarify that point on Wednesday evening.
The policy was welcomed by Business Council of Australia chief Jennifer Westacott. "The double handling and delays that are evident in the current environmental approvals processes cost jobs, while doing nothing to protect the environment."
But Greens environment spokeswoman Senator Larissa Waters said: "Tony Abbott wants to wind back environment protection by 30 years by handing national environment law over to his state cronies."
Frequently Asked Questions about this Article…
According to the government's Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics, the roughly $16 billion drop in the value of mining and energy exports in 2013 was driven mainly by weaker commodity prices. That fall came despite larger export volumes and an easing Australian dollar, which partly offset the price declines.
The two biggest contributors to the decline were iron ore and coking coal. The bureau reported iron ore export values fell by about $5.4 billion and coking coal fell by about $9 billion compared with 2012.
Yes. Five of the 15 surveyed commodities rose in value. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) was the standout, with a 28% increase in export values (about a $3.3 billion improvement on 2012). Manganese ore, crude oil, alumina and LPG were also higher, but together they added only about $800 million.
The bureau expected Australia’s 15 biggest export commodities to be worth about $176.5 billion in 2013, roughly $15.9 billion less than the 2012 result.
The Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics predicted a strong rebound in 2014, forecasting mining and energy exports would top $196 billion — the biggest return from the sector in the past five years — driven by continued volume growth and a lower Australian dollar.
The bureau noted a lower Australian dollar — projected to settle below parity with the U.S. dollar through 2014 — would deliver billions of dollars in benefits to exporters. For investors, a weaker AUD can improve returns for resource exporters when measured in local currency, according to the report.
The article notes that resources companies might find more favourable policies if Opposition Leader Tony Abbott wins the next election. Abbott proposed a 'one-stop-shop' environmental approvals process run via state systems; business groups welcomed the idea, while Greens critics warned it could weaken national environmental protections. The bureau suggested policy shifts could influence the sector next year.
Key takeaways: 2013 saw a fall in export values largely due to weaker commodity prices even as volumes rose; LNG was a notable bright spot; the bureau expects a strong rebound in 2014, helped by higher volumes and a lower Australian dollar; and possible policy changes after an election could affect the resources sector. The report describes trends and forecasts rather than offering specific investment advice.
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